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Motorists can expect petrol prices to fall in coming days as the price of oil has slumped as the Kiwi dollar has stabilised.

The price of oil is at its lowest level in more than three years as fears about lower global growth combine with Opec plans to boost production.

The price of Brent Crude Oil - the variety most closely influencing local petrol prices - fell below US$70 ($122) a barrel overnight.

It briefly touched a low of US$68.42 per barrel - its lowest level since December 2021.

The price of Brent Crude is down more than 15% since its most recent peak at US$82.03 in mid-January.

It has fallen almost 24% since a peak above US$90 in April last year.

For Kiwis, the savings have been muted due to a sizeable fall in the value of the New Zealand dollar by almost 10% against the United States currency in the past year.

Oil is traded in US dollars.

But local pump prices have already dipped by almost 4% in the past month, according to the consumer website Gaspy.

With the big slump of the past few days still to pass through and a stabilisation of the Kiwi dollar (up from around US55.5c to 57c since the start of the month) lower prices should follow.

As well as being good news for motorists the fall in fuel costs will be reassuring for the Reserve Bank as it watches to see that inflation is continuing to fall as hoped.

However, on the flip side, lower oil prices are ominous in so much as they represent expectations for lower economic growth.

That will be a headwind for the New Zealand recovery, potentially slowing export growth.

US President Donald Trump promised lower petrol prices as part of his campaign platform - something he has now achieved but perhaps not for the reasons he hoped.

Oil prices typically rise and fall on expectations for global economic growth that underpin energy consumption.

Trump’s sharp 25% tariffs on US imports from Canada and Mexico, with a lower rate for Canadian energy, kicked in on Tuesday, sending global markets tumbling and straining ties between the neighbours.

Investors fear a trade war will curb global economic growth and slow the post-Covid recovery.

Layered on top of that are signs that oil supply will rise.

Opec+ - the organisation of oil-producing nations dominated by Saudi Arabia - has said it will proceed with a planned oil output increase in April.

Reuters has reported that the Opec+ (which includes Russia) has decided to proceed with a planned April oil output increase, citing three sources from the producer group.

Meanwhile, figures released by the US Energy Information Administration showed stockpiles of oil were rising amid stagnating demand.

Stores of oil in the US rose by 3.6 million barrels last week to 433.8 million, higher than analysts had predicted.

Trump’s policy plan was to free the US oil industry from regulation to promote increased production and limit reliance on imported oil.

But based on current pricing there may be little incentive for US producers to do so.

- additional reporting agencies

Liam Dann is business editor-at-large for the New Zealand Herald. He is a senior writer and columnist, and also presents and produces videos and podcasts. He joined the Herald in 2003. To sign up for his weekly newsletter, click on your user profile at and select “My newsletters”. For a step-by-step guide,.