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Regions hardest hit by Cyclone Gabrielle are in for more rain this weekend - and MetService urges people to watch coming forecasts, with heavy falls possible.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty, but it’s not good news,” MetService meteorologist Alwyn Bakker said.

“Any rain certainly won’t help,” Bakker said, given the areas which could potentially be hit include cyclone-ravaged Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne.

“We know people look at [weather] models online, and you may be seeing [predictions of heavy rain], but rest assured: we’re monitoring it,” he said.

Some long-range models the forecaster relied on to make predictions showed a risk of heavy rain for the east coast of the North Island, with about 50mm of rainfall possible this Friday and Saturday.

“Other [models] are more pessimistic,” MetService tweeted - with over 100mm possible for the central Hawke’s Bay shown in one model.

Bakker said, “there will be rain, it’s just a case of how heavy, where it will be, how much of it will fall, and when it will come.

“We want to keep people as informed and as safe as possible. Don’t panic, we are aware of this,” he said.

He said weather watches and warnings would be issued closer to the time if they we needed.

Warning criteria, which depended on the rainfall amounts predicted, had been lowered about the areas worst hit due to how saturated the ground was from the cyclone, Bakker said.

The 18th green at the Napier Golf Club in the immediate aftermath of flooding. Photo / Paul Taylor

Warning thresholds remained at 100mm over 24 hours for impacted areas.

“Essentially, everything’s more sensitive than they normally would be. We’re communicating with [local authorities] and saying: ‘This is how much we think you’re going to get, can councils handle that?’,” he said.

MetService could expect to get a clearer picture of the potential rainfall amounts and locations tomorrow at the earliest, Bakker said.

“Watch this space, keep checking back - please keep checking back with our warnings and watches,” he said.

The different models which predicted the rain for either Friday or Saturday were “not agreeing very well” which added to the uncertainty, Bakker said.

“We know everybody is concerned about these areas, it looks alarming, but we don’t know.”

He said the rain would be driven by a front expected to move up the country.

“[The front] may develop a bit of a low [pressure system] off the east coast, it’s just ‘if, ‘when and where’ it will form,” Bakker said.

Raw sewage forces Napier evacuations

As the regions prepare for more rain, Fire and Emergency were evacuating people away from raw sewage near the Awatoto Public Golf Course on Awatoto Road in Napier.

Fire and Emergency Group Manager Gareth Hughes said all members of the public had been asked to stay out of the cordoned area so crews can deal with the incident quickly.

”There are currently three fire trucks, two tankers and a Hazmat Command Unit at the location,” Hughes said.

”If you think you’ve been exposed, please seek medical treatment immediately.”

A flooded house in Awatoto. Photo / Supplied

About 1700 people remain ‘uncontactable’ as the strain of Cyclone Gabrielle begins to show on communities - including, police say, in the rise of family harm incidents in Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne.

Police Commissioner Andrew Coster told Mike Hosking this morning the number of people ‘uncontactable’ was 1700.

The death toll remains at 11. Police are especially worried for about 10 people who have yet to be located.

Cyclone Gabrielle has destroyed the coast line of Gisborne taking out bridges and roads. Pictured is SH35 near Mangatuna. Photo / George Heard

Defence Minister Andrew Little has ruled out invoking a provision in the Defence Act to allow the military to take on a policing role to help maintain law and order in cyclone-hit areas.

“The Defence Act is very clear. Before the Army get deployed for that sort of role, the police have to communicate that they cannot manage the situation. They’re nowhere near that situation, so the military won’t be used for that purpose,” Little said.

“The police are indicating they have things under control.”

Little said the last time the military were used in a policing role was in the 1984 Queen Street riots.

“It is a very high threshold for the military to be deployed for police use. So it’s not something that happens very often.”

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