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More classrooms to be built; poll shows coalition likely election outcome

Author
Adam Pearse,
Publish Date
Mon, 15 May 2023, 8:02am

More classrooms to be built; poll shows coalition likely election outcome

Author
Adam Pearse,
Publish Date
Mon, 15 May 2023, 8:02am

The Government will today reveal further investment in building more classrooms in its last set piece ahead of this week鈥檚 big Budget Day reveal, the聽Herald听耻苍诲别谤蝉迟补苍诲蝉.

Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Education Minister Jan Tinetti are expected to make the announcement at a Wellington school this morning, and it is understood to add to the more than 2700 new classrooms funded since 2017.

It is expected to be the final pre-Budget announcement ahead of Thursday, when Finance Minister Grant Robertson will reveal how he plans to balance cost of living pressures, avoid exacerbating inflation and pay a potentially $14.5 billion bill for Cyclone Gabrielle and flooding recovery - with a general election just five months away.

Hipkins and Labour will be hoping the Budget reinforces recent polls suggesting a Labour/Greens/Te P膩ti M膩ori Government is a likely outcome.

Despite聽two polls in the last five days聽showing its聽support had dipped, last night鈥檚聽九一星空无限hub Reid Research poll聽found Labour (35.9 per cent) was just ahead of National (35.3 per cent) and聽Te P膩ti M膩ori聽was in the kingmaker position.

If Te P膩ti M膩ori (polling at 3.5 per cent) won an electorate, it could form a 61-seat coalition Government with Labour and the Greens, while National and Act could only muster 59 seats according to the poll, following National last week ruling out working with Te P膩ti M膩ori.

Te P膩ti M膩ori leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer could be in the kingmaker position come the election, according to recent polls. Photo / Marty MelvilleTe P膩ti M膩ori leaders Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer could be in the kingmaker position come the election, according to recent polls. Photo / Marty Melville

Hipkins, Robertson and an array of other ministers and local MPs yesterday unveiled聽almost $1b in cyclone recovery, including $475 million to rebuild road and rail links, about $100m to raise stopbanks and shore up flood protection assets and $35.4m to support the wellbeing of farmers, growers and stock in cyclone-damaged areas.

鈥淐yclone recovery is a core focus of this year鈥檚 Budget, and today鈥檚 package adds to the $890 million already provided in a rolling maul of repair works and business support,鈥 Hipkins said.

A central feature of yesterday鈥檚 package was education, with $116m to repair or rebuild the more than 500 schools damaged by the severe weather events that hit the North Island this year.

This, on top of today鈥檚 expected announcement, added to Labour鈥檚 $106m plan to reduce class sizes for Year 4-8 students as the party seeks to win points in a sector considered to be a key election battleground by former Education Minister Hipkins.

In March, National unveiled a聽鈥渂ack to basics鈥 education policy聽that included primary and intermediate schools being required to teach students for at least one hour a day on each of the topics of reading, writing and maths, with children being tested on them at least twice a year in a new version of the controversial National Standards.

While important, education would likely take a back seat in the Budget to measures addressing the high cost of living and servicing the sizeable cost of Cyclone Gabrielle and the Auckland floods.

Finance Minister and Cyclone Recovery Minister Grant Robertson alongside Prime Minister Chris Hipkins (right) and an array of other ministers and MPs in Hawke's Bay making a funding announcement. Photo / Warren BucklandFinance Minister and Cyclone Recovery Minister Grant Robertson alongside Prime Minister Chris Hipkins (right) and an array of other ministers and MPs in Hawke's Bay making a funding announcement. Photo / Warren Buckland

In a pre-Budget speech to the Wellington Chamber of Commerce last week, Robertson announced $4b of savings had been found to top up the 2023 Budget following his warning to ministers to trim spending if they wanted to progress new initiatives.

鈥淭he outcome of this exercise is that Budget 2023 will include $4 billion of savings and reprioritisations over the four-year forecast period,鈥 he said.

Robertson said the cost of the cyclone recovery would be funded from existing spending and borrowing, rather than raising new taxes, something Hipkins had ruled out. He said this meant some ministers missing out on funding for pet projects in order to fund the recovery.

In another pre-Budget speech to some members of Auckland鈥檚 business community last week, Robertson signalled the 鈥渉ard calls鈥 that must be made by 鈥渃entral government, by local government, commercial businesses, communities, banks and insurance companies鈥 as the Government prepares to tackle a bill of between $9b and $14.5b, according to Treasury鈥檚 most recent estimates.

During the funding announcement in Hawke鈥檚 Bay yesterday, Robertson acknowledged decisions were yet to be made regarding land use in cyclone and flood-damaged areas.

Robertson, also the Cyclone Recovery Minister, has repeatedly stressed the need for such decisions to be 鈥渓ocally led鈥 and done following consultation with impacted communities.

Questions remain unanswered regarding whether some communities will ever be able to rebuild. Photo / Neil Reid Questions remain unanswered regarding whether some communities will ever be able to rebuild. Photo / Neil Reid

The timeline for that consultation had been delayed several times, but was expected to begin on May 31 with communities that were the least affected and most likely to be able to rebuild.

In areas that might be deemed unliveable, communities would have to wait until later in June.

National leader Christopher Luxon and Act leader David Seymour both welcomed yesterday鈥檚 investment but referenced those unanswered questions in their criticism of the Government鈥檚 pace of decision-making.

鈥淚 think if you鈥檙e a homeowner or a business owner, you want real clarity about your future land use, and I don鈥檛 see anything there for that,鈥 Luxon said.

Seymour said: 鈥淚t鈥檚 taken them three months to announce a lot of obvious things, like they鈥檒l have to fix roads.鈥

鈥淧eople I visited in Hawke鈥檚 Bay as recently as three weeks ago were still waiting for even basic decisions around flood protection.鈥

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