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The Government is on track to meet its first and second emissions budgets, but remains off track for hitting its third budget, which begins in the 2030s. 

Climate Change Minister Simon Watts released the Government’s final Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP) on Wednesday. An ERP is a document required under the Zero Carbon Act which details how the Government will meet its commitment to reduce emissions and meet the net zero 2050 target. Emissions commitments are split into five-year emissions budgets. 

This is the first such plan for the coalition Government and confirms the direction of the draft ERP released earlier this year, which also showed New Zealand missing its third emissions budget. 

Watts introduced an amendment to the first ERP, introduced under the last Government. The revision to the plan made “cost-of-living” changes to policies from the first ERP, such as binning vehicle-kilometres-travelled targets, axing subsidies for EVs, and closing the GIDI fund for industrial ecarbonisation. These policies had already been announced. 

Figures released with the plan showed the Government had managed to close the gap on the third emissions budget. The draft plan showed the Government going over the budget by 17 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent (Mt CO2-e). The final plan closes this gap to 9.2Mt CO2-e. 

There is a silver lining, however. Watts said the plan shows a path to meet the net 2050 target “as early as 2044″. 

“New Zealand needs to be stronger in a changing climate. We want our way of life to be protected and minimise the impacts of climate change to our country,” Watts said. 

“We can have affordable and secure clean energy, an efficient, competitive agriculture sector and a booming economy, while meeting our climate change commitments. This plan sets out how we can get there,” Watts said. 

The plan marks a pivot away from the last Government’s climate strategy, which focused on discrete and targeted policy interventions. The coalition intends to use the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) and more market-based measures to reduce emissions. 

There are signs that some confidence is returning to the ETS, with auctions under the last Government failing to clear. 

The coalition Government has a challenge in that it wants to protect the relatively polluting agriculture and energy sectors and keep prices low, while also reducing emissions. 

It touted eight policies as having the most significant impact on reducing emissions over the next five years: 

• Enabling more renewable energy projects through Electrify NZ 
• Recognising carbon capture, utilisation and storage in the NZ ETS 
• Targeting a network of 10,000 EV charging points by 2030 
• Introducing agricultural emissions pricing by 2030 and incentivising the uptake of new technologies 
• Exploring private-sector partnerships to plant trees on low-conservation, Crown-owned land 
• Introducing a regulated product stewardship scheme for refrigerants from 2025 
• Leveraging the Waste Minimisation Fund to enable resource recovery systems and infrastructure to process organic waste 
• Improving organic waste management and landfill gas capture to increase landfill gas recovery rates. 

Watts said “achieving our goals will require collaboration across all sectors to reduce emissions, unlock renewable energy, foster innovation and leverage nature-based solutions”. 

“Our plan highlights the significant progress already being made by businesses in the private sector, showcasing ongoing efforts to drive meaningful change across the board,” he said. 

Thomas Coughlan is Deputy Political Editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.