Think humans play a relatively small role in how Earth moves in space? It turns out we鈥檙e changing how our very planet rotates 鈥 and it鈥檚 affecting the length of our days.
For billions of years, Earth鈥檚 movements 鈥 how it spins and at what speed 鈥 have been primarily determined by forces beyond human influence, such as the pull of the moon and processes at our core and mantle. Now, the melting of Earth鈥檚 ice sheets, accelerated by human-driven warming, is influencing those motions.
The melting of Earth鈥檚 large ice masses has made days ever so slightly longer in recent decades and shifted Earth鈥檚 axis of rotation, according to two recent studies. The lengthening and shifts may be imperceptible to humans, but they can affect the accuracy of navigation systems or throw off calculations for satellite launches and landings. This extra slowing of Earth鈥檚 rotation is likely to stay for at least the next few decades, even if humans鈥 effect on the climate slows.
鈥淐limate change is melting so much ice that we can see a huge impact on the very way how the planet is spinning,鈥 said Surendra Adhikari, a geophysicist at Nasa Jet Propulsion Laboratory and an author of the two papers.
Days are getting longer
As temperatures rise globally, Earth鈥檚 polar regions have felt the brunt of the heat added since the 20th century. The melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets account for nearly one-third of global sea level rise since the early 1990s. But the melting is not affecting only sea levels.
As the polar ice melts, the water moves from the poles towards the equator, making our Earth rotate slower as it gets bulkier. Think of a figure skater who spins slower when her arms are stretched out compared with tucked into her body. The same applies to Earth鈥檚 rotation, says Benedikt Soja, a co-author and professor at ETH Zurich.
Soja and the team showed in findings published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal that recent, rapid melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice has increased the length of our days. Using past observations and projection models, they found the ice loss added time to Earth鈥檚 day between 0.3 to 1 milliseconds a century through the 20th century. But since 2000, the rate has accelerated to 1.33 milliseconds a century.
For billions of years, the speed of our planet鈥檚 rotation has dominantly been influenced by our moon. The moon yanks on the planet鈥檚 oceans and causes the tides to bulge, creating drag and slowing down Earth鈥檚 spin. Earth鈥檚 rotation has been predictably and consistently slowing down because of the moon鈥檚 gravitational forces 鈥 about 2.4 milliseconds a century, according to the study鈥檚 authors.
But the study 鈥渟hows what we as humans can really impact in terms of changing Earth鈥檚 behavior and dynamics鈥.
Some scientists were not surprised by the study鈥檚 link to climate change. Richard Peltier, a physicist at the University of Toronto, published a study more than a decade ago stating 鈥渢he changes in Earth rotation documented were caused by the global warming process鈥. Another recent study showed how this climate-induced day lengthening is affecting our timekeeping and delaying the leap second.
But the new research shows climate change is a bigger influence than previously thought and projects how Earth鈥檚 rotation may continue to change if global warming worsens. By 2100, the scientists involved in the study estimated, the melting ice could lengthen days to 2.62 milliseconds a century, if greenhouse gas emissions are not drastically reduced. Even if emissions are curbed, Earth鈥檚 day is projected to lengthen about 1 millisecond a century for the next several decades.
The slowdown from melting ice 鈥渃ould become the new dominant factor, surpassing the moon, which for billions of years shaped Earth鈥檚 rotation,鈥 Soja said.
A few milliseconds here or there might not sound like a big deal, but it can add hours over billions of years. Perhaps more relevant to our lifetimes: these millisecond changes can affect technologies.
Our GPS and navigation systems rely on this precision 鈥渢o the level of milliseconds, otherwise we would make very big errors in positioning and navigation鈥, Soja said.
As temperatures rise globally, Earth鈥檚 polar regions have felt the brunt of the heat added since the 20th century.
Earth鈥檚 axis of rotation is shifting
Our planet isn鈥檛 only changing how fast it鈥檚 spinning, but where it rotates.
Earth spins on an imaginary line from the North and South poles, but the line isn鈥檛 fixed. The points where the axis of rotation meets Earth鈥檚 surface drifts and wobbles a few inches a year and several metres every century.
Soja, Adhikari and their team were now able to determine what factors have influenced these 鈥減olar motions鈥 in unprecedented detail over the past 120 years. They found the ice mass loss from the North and South poles plays a role in these wiggles, according to another recent study published in Nature Geoscience.
鈥淲e could see that climate change, what happens on the surface, basically can also have a small impact on the dynamics that happen in the very interior of the Earth, like the Earth鈥檚 core,鈥 Soja said.
Scientists have long known some of the natural processes that can induce mass changes on and within the planet, and thus affecting its axis of rotation. For instance, convection currents deep within the mantle can move tectonic plates on the surface. Heat flows in Earth鈥檚 outer core that help generate the planet鈥檚 magnetic field also can shift mass.
Now, add climate change.
As ice is lost from the poles, the mass loss can throw off Earth鈥檚 geometry and have a bigger impact on shifting Earth鈥檚 spin axis. The new study found such mass redistribution on Earth鈥檚 surface, including ice melting and global changes in water storage, accounted for 90% of variations between years and decades.
Mostafa Kiani Shahvandi, lead author of both the Earth axis and day of length studies, says these surface processes, like the melting of ice, can move the axis more than processes inside Earth.
Adhikari says people haven鈥檛 thoroughly investigated the influence of climate change on polar motion, and even this is a starting point: 鈥淲e are opening questions for future research.鈥
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