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• Mark Carney is expected to call a snap election for April 28, focusing on US trade tensions. 
• Carney aims to capitalise on a polling surge for the Liberals, driven by US tariffs and Trump’s statements. 
• The election will test Carney, a former central banker, against Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in a tight race. 

New Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to call a snap election for April 28, triggering an intense campaign dominated by how to react to Donald Trump’s trade war and demands by the US President to turn Canada into a 51st state. 

Carney, who replaced Prime Minister Justin Trudeau just last week, is expected to announce the election date on Sunday. 

The quick election announcement reflects Carney’s wish to capitalise on a polling surge for his Liberal Party, driven in large part by the US tariffs and Trump’s unprecedented and repeated statements that Canada should not remain an independent country. 

At the start of the year – just before Trump took office – the Liberals had appeared headed for an electoral wipeout, with the opposition Conservatives on track to form the next government. 

Amid relentless pressure from Trump and internal Liberal Party divisions, Trudeau announced his plans to resign after nearly a decade in power. 

However, Carney, who overwhelmingly won the March 9 party vote to replace Trudeau, has succeeded in uniting the Liberals as they confront Trump and fears of trade-war-induced recession. 

This will be the first campaign for Carney, a 60-year-old former central banker who has never held elected office. 

He argues that his experience leading the Bank of Canada through the 2008-2009 financial crisis and as head of the Bank of England during the Brexit vote makes him the ideal candidate to lead during a time of economic turmoil. 

Carney has called Trump’s United States a country Canada can “no longer trust” and warned Canadians that relations with Washington may be permanently altered. 

After being sworn in last week, Carney quickly headed to Paris and London, arguing Canada needed to solidify its European alliances as ties with the United States deteriorate. 

“What is clear is that our trade and our security relations are too reliant on the United States. We must diversify,” he said in London. 

The Conservatives had been seeing a rise in polling numbers over the past year and their leader Pierre Poilievre looked on track to be Prime Minister. But recent surveys show the race will be a dead heat. 

The Liberal polling gains have in part come at the expense of the left-wing New Democrats, who progressive voters often trust on domestic issues like healthcare but are not widely seen as strong in managing relations with the US. 

Queen’s University politics professor Stephanie Chouinard said the election call was expected, with the Liberals making gains, but noted “there is still uncertainty around Mark Carney, who has never campaigned”. 

“It’s going to be a test in difficult conditions for him,” she added. 

The polling suggests some voters are less comfortable backing Poilievre as a counter to Trump. 

The Tory leader has been praised on social media by key Trump ally Elon Musk, and some Liberals have sought to brand Poilievre as “Maple Syrup MAGA”. 

But Poilievre is a seasoned politician who has sought to distance himself from Trump. 

Trump appears to have noticed, saying the Canadian Conservative is “stupidly no friend of mine”. 

At a campaign-style event in Jonquiere, Quebec, this week, Poilievre told reporters Canada “needs a strong leader”, and added that his plan is to “make the economy less dependent on the United States and put Canada first”. He did not mention Trump, however. 

University of Ottawa politics professor Genevieve Tellier said that both the Conservatives and the New Democrats “will try to focus on issues other than Mr Trump’s threats because that favours the Liberals for now”. 

“It’s an incredible turnaround for the Liberals,” she said, noting Canadians are “also looking for a certain stability” and may see the Liberals, in power since 2015, as less of a risk. 

–Michel Comte, Agence France-Presse