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Iran’s president has died in office. Here’s what happens next

Author
CNN,
Publish Date
Tue, 21 May 2024, 2:22pm
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Photo / AP
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. Photo / AP

Iran’s president has died in office. Here’s what happens next

Author
CNN,
Publish Date
Tue, 21 May 2024, 2:22pm

CNN- Once seen as a likely successor to Iran鈥檚 Supreme Leader, President Ebrahim Raisi has died in office, leaving the Islamic Republic鈥檚 hardline establishment facing an uncertain future.

An ultraconservative president, 63-year-old Raisi was killed Sunday, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other high-ranking officials, in a helicopter crash in Iran鈥檚 remote northwest. Their death comes at a delicate time for a country that faces unprecedented challenges at home and from abroad.

The Islamic Republic鈥檚 economy remains crippled by American sanctions, its young population is becoming growingly restive, and the country faces increasingly belligerent adversaries in the Middle East and beyond.

Raisi鈥檚 death will 鈥渢rigger elections at a time when the IRI (Islamic Republic of Iran) is at the nadir of its legitimacy and zenith of its exclusionary policies,鈥 Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group think tank, said on X.

Here鈥檚 what comes next.

Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber speaks during Iran's government cabinet on Monday in Tehran, Iran.
Iran's First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber speaks during Iran's government cabinet on Monday in Tehran, Iran. Iran's Presidency/WANA/Reuters

Who steps in as president?

Power has now been transferred to Mohammad Mokhber, who had served as Raisi鈥檚 vice president and was on Monday approved as acting president by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the final arbiter of domestic and foreign affairs in the Islamic Republic.

Not as well known as Raisi, Mokhber is 鈥渁nother administrator,鈥 Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank in London, told CNN鈥檚 Becky Anderson. 鈥淗e is close to the IRGC, close to the levers of power,鈥 Vakil said, adding that he is likely to present a model of 鈥渂usiness as usual鈥 in the coming days.

But the country must, by law, hold elections within the next 50 days. On Monday, Iranian state news IRNA said Iran鈥檚 presidential elections will take place Friday, June 28. Candidates can register from May 30 to June 3, and campaigning will run from June 12 until the morning of June 27, it added.

Experts say that the elections are likely to be hastily organized, with poor voter participation. In March, Iran recorded its lowest electoral turnout since the Islamic Republic鈥檚 founding in 1979, despite government efforts to rally voters ahead of the ballot.

That vote 鈥 for seats in the parliament, or Majles, and the 88-member Assembly of Experts, which is tasked with picking the Supreme Leader 鈥 brought in mostly hardline politicians.

鈥淭he population has by and large lost faith in the idea that change can come through the ballot box,鈥 Trita Parsi, co-founder and Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, DC, wrote Sunday on X.

Rescue team members work at the scene of the helicopter crash carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Varzaghan, in northwestern Iran on Monday.
Rescue team members work at the scene of the helicopter crash carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Varzaghan, in northwestern Iran on Monday. Azin Haghighi/Moj 九一星空无限 Agency/AP

The March election also barred more moderate politicians from running 鈥 including former President Hassan Rouhani, once a regime stalwart 鈥 tightening the small circle of hardliners to continue the Supreme Leader鈥檚 conservative rule after he dies.

鈥淩eal alternatives to Iran鈥檚 hardliners have simply not been allowed to stand for office in the last few elections,鈥 Parsi said on X, adding that 鈥渢hose alternatives have in the eyes of the majority of the population lost credibility anyways, due to the failure to deliver change.鈥

Until the Supreme Leader is replaced, however, little change is expected to follow Raisi鈥檚 death, particularly on foreign policy.

鈥淚t is really the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards who make the final decisions, and even in the region mostly implement Iran鈥檚 regional policy,鈥 Vaez said, adding that 鈥渙verall we will see more continuity than change.鈥

What are the longer-term implications of Raisi鈥檚 death?

Raisi鈥檚 death has raised questions about who will eventually succeed Iran鈥檚 85-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the most powerful man in the country.

The Iranian clerical establishment had invested heavily in Raisi during his presidency, seeing him as a potential successor to Khamenei. Observers say he had been groomed to be elevated to the Supreme Leader鈥檚 position.

Raisi鈥檚 death will create 鈥渁 succession crisis in Iran,鈥 Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, wrote on X.

The late president upheld some of the regime鈥檚 most hardline policies, quashing the 2022 mass protests that sought to challenge repressive laws, such as the compulsory hijab.

According to the constitution, the 88-member Assembly of Experts picks the successor to the Supreme Leader after his death. Members of the Assembly itself are, however, pre-vetted by Iran鈥檚 Guardian Council, a powerful 12-member body charged with overseeing elections and legislation.

The Assembly of Experts has become increasingly hardline over the years. In the March vote, Raisi was re-elected to the assembly, and the Guardian Council barred Rouhani from contesting a seat.

While there are procedures to selecting the Supreme Leader, discussions about successions are always 鈥渧ery opaque,鈥 Vakil said, adding that they take place 鈥渨ithin a very close circle of individuals.鈥

Some have pointed to the incumbent Supreme Leader鈥檚 son Mojtaba Khamenei, a midlevel cleric, as a potential contender for the top post, but that would be a shift from the principles of the Islamic Republic, which overthrew a repressive monarchy in 1970 and has prided itself for shaking off hereditary rule.

Allowing Mojtaba to replace his father may, however, spur theories that Raisi鈥檚 death was not accidental, Sadjadpour said.

Raisi鈥檚 rivals are also likely to try to fill the vacuum he leaves, Vaez said.

鈥(This) definitely throws all the plans that offices of the Supreme Leader probably had out the window,鈥 Vaez told CNN鈥檚 Paula Newton.

He added, however, that Iran has no shortage of political actors who are 鈥渟ubservient and belong to the old guard of the Islamic Republic鈥 who can replace Raisi.

How will it impact Iran鈥檚 foreign relations?

Raisi and Amir-Abdollahian oversaw a turnaround in Iran鈥檚 relations with its Arab neighbors, helping normalized relations with longtime foe Saudi Arabia, with China鈥檚 assistance. But they also saw the Islamic Republic initiate a large-scale direct attack on Israel for the first time, after a suspected Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria. That prompted Israel to launch an unprecedented retaliation, bringing the shadow war between the two nations out into the open.

Experts say that Raisi鈥檚 death is unlikely to have an impact on the regime鈥檚 foreign policy, which is almost exclusively the domain of the Supreme Leader.

Iran鈥檚 foreign policy is decided by the Supreme National Security Council and can be vetoed by the Supreme Leader, Mohammad Ali Shabani, Iran expert and editor of the Amwaj.media news outlet, told CNN鈥檚 Anderson. 鈥淲e will see continuity in terms of how Iran approaches the regional files, collaboration with regional allies.鈥

He added that a similar trajectory is likely to be seen on the nuclear program.

Could the upcoming presidential election bring change to Iran?

Some experts say that the election presents an opportunity for the regime to bring back sidelined moderates. While Khamenei is likely to maintain conservative rule, he 鈥渉as always emphasized voter turnout as a litmus test of the legitimacy of the system,鈥 Shabani said. 鈥淭hat election can be a watershed moment for Iran.鈥

Raisi came to power in elections that many Iranians saw as a foregone conclusion. With moderate candidates squeezed out, voter turnout was extremely low, highlighting the regime鈥檚 waning legitimacy.

鈥淚f the Supreme Leader chooses to use these early elections as a watershed moment to open up the political space, to get people to vote again, that could be a massive gamechanger,鈥 Shabani said, adding that this would also impact succession to the Supreme Leader.

What are the funeral plans?

Multi-day funeral ceremonies for Raisi will begin on Tuesday in Tabriz and continue in Qom, Tehran and Mashhad, according to Mohsen Mansouri, the head of the funeral planning committee and and Iran鈥檚 vice president of executive affairs.

Speaking to state television on Monday, Mansouri said funeral prayers will begin in the northwestern city of Tabriz at 9:30 a.m. local time on Tuesday. There will be a procession from the Tabriz Martyr鈥檚 Square to the Tabriz Mosallah (prayer hall).

Later on Tuesday, the bodies of the victims of the helicopter crash will be transferred to the holy Shiite city of Qom, where funeral prayers will take place at 4:30 p.m. local time (9 a.m. ET) outside the Fatima Masumeh Shrine. Afterwards, on Tuesday evening, the bodies will be transferred to Tehran鈥檚 Grand Mosallah Mosque, according to Mansouri.

On Wednesday, large ceremonies are planned in Tehran at the Grand Mosallah. One or two other ceremonies will be announced later, according to Mansouri.

On Thursday morning, funeral prayers will begin in Birjand, South Khorasan province, where Raisi served as the Supreme Leader鈥檚 representative. Later on Thursday, Raisi鈥檚 body will be transferred to the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad where Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will conduct prayers over Raisi鈥檚 body, according to Mehr news.

On Thursday night, Raisi鈥檚 body will be buried in Mashhad, according to Mansouri.

Mansouri also announced the closure of offices on Wednesday all over the country, and said the governors in the provinces where processions will take place can declare public holidays on Wednesday.

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