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A full-blown coup attempt by paramilitary organisation Wagner Group’s Yevgeny Prigozhin may have been avoided, but this failed toppling still spells bad news for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Speaking to  podcast, Otago University international relations professor Robert Patman says the attempted takeover points to the uncomfortable reality that Putin’s position is not as secure as it once was.

“The political problems mounting for Mr Putin are symptomatic of the domestic backlash building up to an operation [the invasion of Ukraine] that reflected poor strategy,” says Patman.

“I think we’re seeing the beginning of the end of Putin’s period in office.”

Patman says it’s difficult to identify exactly when that will come, but this unrest has sent a strong message that people are willing to stand up to the Russian leader.

“It’s very difficult [to tell when this will happen] in authoritarian regimes because the contenders don’t advertise their movements in advance, but Putin is responsible for the deaths of lots of people, so I don’t think he can look forward to a comfortable retirement in Sochi or some other destination. It’s likely to be bloody and violent, unfortunately. And it’s likely to happen in the not-so-distant future.”

Putin isn’t the only one that could face a violent end. Patman says that Prigozhin has also sealed his fate by standing up against Putin, even though he ultimately backtracked.

“Prigozhin’s future is also looking pretty grim,” says Patman.

“I’d be surprised if there’s not an attempt on him shortly. From Putin’s point of view, one way of restoring his authority in Moscow will be to deal very expeditiously with Prigozhin and therefore hand out a lesson to other would-be challengers that it doesn’t pay to challenge the boss.”

So, who exactly is Yevgeny Prigozhin, the man who dared to take on Putin? Why was he furious enough to march his armed forces toward Moscow? How did Belarus end up stepping in as the place where Prigozhin would be exiled? And what does this all mean for Ukraine amid the ongoing war with Russia?

Listen to the full episode of  podcast to hear Patman elaborate on all these issues and more.

The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5am. It’s presented by Damien Venuto, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in business reporting who joined the Herald in 2017.

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