/on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/rss 九一星空无限 Fri, 31 Jan 2025 06:52:11 Z en /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-we-need-to-learn-the-difference-between-needs-and-nice-to-haves/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-we-need-to-learn-the-difference-between-needs-and-nice-to-haves/ So, the Herald, in the weekend, came out and called the anti-cycle lane movement a culture war in its editorial. They pointed out the bleeding obvious - that cycleways aren't the reason there is not enough money to improve our roads. They pointed out that cycleways make up 1 percent of our transport spending. It's far less than footpaths - but you never get talkback calls moaning about footpaths, do you now? This comes after the owners of the Westmere Butchery complained about a proposed cycleway outside their door affecting business. There's no parking outside their door. Look at Google Maps. There's 25 cars parked down Garnet Road and there's room for more. They're talking bull. They've turned out to be useful soldiers in a culture war. So was the Wellington owner of Pandoro Bakery, whose main shop on Allens Street is 100 metres from a free supermarket carpark and there's not a cycleway nearby or even proposed. I have no idea what their motivation is. Other than a desire to prevent us from having good things. Other than a desire to have a mediocre country. It's the common line from politicians these days - we can only have the 'need to haves' but not the 'nice to haves'. But it's a nonsensical slogan when you can't figure out the difference between the two. It's the 'need to have' thinking that gave us the flawed Harbour Bridge. Someone somehow figured out that 8 lanes and a railway line were a 'nice to have' and 'not a need' to have for a future growing city. The Prime Minister claimed that the Wellington Convention Centre was a 'nice to have' and that's we don't have money to fix the burst pipes. The pipes are broken because they weren't replaced 50 years ago and now they're 100 years old. That's because someone 50 years ago decided that water pipe maintenance was a 'nice to have' and that someone in the future can pay for it when it becomes a 'need to have'. On an overseas trip before the election, the Prime Minister gave New Zealand a serve for being wet and having no mojo. Well, look in the mirror, Christopher and Simeon. Businesses will look at you and all your false economy and see a so-called CEO who doesn't believe in capex or investment in plants and machinery. And we'll look at other countries and wonder why our 'nice to haves' are their 'need to haves'. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 16 Sep 2024 03:00:39 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-why-not-kill-the-treaty-principles-bill-now/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-why-not-kill-the-treaty-principles-bill-now/ So the latest twist in the Treaty Principles debate is that the churches have come out against it. More than 400 church leaders are urging MPs to vote against David Seymour's bill. It's the latest chapter in a debate that has been described as 'divisive'. If you don't think it's been divisive you weren't listening to Māori at the King's funeral. They're not hearing the One People argument, because they don't believe the bill promotes that. In fact, they believe the opposite. They believe the Treaty is how we achieve One People Together in agreement. Personally, I don't care. I don't care if you support Māori and I don't care if you support Mr Seymour. The fact of the matter is this is a virtue-signalling sideshow and it is divisive. Just like vaccinations and mandates and the Middle East. The Treaty Principles Bill is divisive. And the reason why it's a virtue-signalling sideshow is because both National and New Zealand First have already said it won't get past the first reading. So it's a dead policy walking. Why not kill it now and stop wasting our time, money and emotion? Or the other parties could change their minds and help their coalition partner. But then you'll be branded as flippy-floppy. Either way, I can't see how this helps National. You have a divided angry nation at each other's throat or you look weak. Who's in charge of this coalition? And speaking of which: Former gun lobbyist Nicole McKee has used her power as a Government minister to reduce regulation for gun clubs - without any public consultation. It's not a major thing, but it is an abandonment of the true democratic process. Perhaps National needs a reminder that when the legislation was first introduced after the mosque atrocity that every single member of National voted for it. So were you wrong then or are you wrong now? Both these stories feel like the tail wagging the dog and makes National look weak. And I don't like that. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 09 Sep 2024 03:04:12 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-someone-has-to-point-out-the-obvious-now-and-then/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-someone-has-to-point-out-the-obvious-now-and-then/ I was going to start my programme today with some thoughts about the energy crisis, but something else has popped up. But I will share with you some fun facts: Did you know that New Zealand uses the same amount of electricity in 2024 as we did in 2004? Even though our economic activity and population have grown immensely in the past 20 years. What happened is that we, as consumers, became more efficient with our electricity use. We started using LEDs, we started saving, we started being more careful with our use. So the energy crunch is because we're not making as much electricity as we used to - even though we've been saving electricity ourselves  Meanwhile, did you also know that there are currently 22 renewable electricity projects fully consented but not started by the gentailers? So sure, blame the oil and gas exploration ban and that will result in an energy crunch in 10 years. But today's energy crisis is because the generators, who are also the retailers, have not ensured supply despite having it all available to them for years now. I've got more on that - but right now, I have to mention outgoing Treasury head Caralee McLiesh who's leaving for a job as Australia's auditor-general. In her exit interview she said the New Zealand Government needs to make more revenue. And the only way a Government makes more money is more taxes. She'd like to see a capital gains tax She's like to see a capital gains tax - and she says the Government needs to save more in the big expensive items. She mentions super. She'd like to see the age limit raised. Now, Caralee is not some crazy ideological lefty who wants to see the old and rich punished. She's pointing out the bleeding obvious. We are structurally bad. Economists have been saying this for generations. We don't tax enough. When we tax, we tax the wrong people. We don't spend enough and when we do, we do it cheap and too late and then complain when it all starts to fall apart. Faced with all this economic reality, the current Government decided to reduce its revenue to help some taxpayers and landlords. That's the exact opposite of what the problem needs. And then to make things worse, they've stopped spending. And we end up with a country where pregnant Mums can't have toast, Nelson can't get a new hospital building, we run ferries that should be in museums, we run out of power and water, and then we moan we're becoming a third world country and it's all Labour's fault. Someone has to point out the bleeding obvious now and then. I'm pretty sure nothing will happen on Caralee McLeish's advice because to change our structure would be too expensive politically. No turkey votes for Christmas. So before you moan again about how useless this country is, remember it's the country you voted for. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 02 Sep 2024 03:32:18 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-reality-always-catches-up-to-politics/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-reality-always-catches-up-to-politics/ Do I need to remind you that politics is show business? It's all about seeming to be the best instead of necessarily being the best. This is why politicians often say the most ridiculous things and make the most outlandish promises. It’s also why they boil complex issues down to simple catchy slogans which are repeated ad nauseum until they gain their own reality. But eventually, reality catches up. Yesterday’s backdown over the Fast-Track legislation is proof of that. Under the coalition’s original proposal Simeon Brown, Shane Jones and Chris Bishop had the power to green-light anything, even if all advice was against it. This was all in service of the thesis that New Zealand is bogged down in red tape. A slogan hammered time and time again in the election until a significant number of electors believed that giving 3 ministers such power was without risk - and possibly good for the country. The coalition’s answer was totalitarian. I was flabbergasted when I first read the policy and astounded that there was not more outrage. It was immense power in the hands of 3 men. Imagine if Michael Wood, Megan Woods, and Willie Jackson had been granted such power in the last Government. You’d be up in arms saying it was undemocratic and dictatorial. It was much more undemocratic than any co-governance plan. But we all heard silence. We’d been well trained and well indoctrinated and no one complained. Now the National-led coalition has seen sense and now the new Fast-Track legislation means a panel of experts in the field will have more say. Which looks almost the same as Labour introduced before the last election - because it is. So in other words, this Government is no more committed to fast tracking as the last lot. So then you ask yourself - what was all that about? It's all about politics, it's all about getting your vote. Meanwhile, the credit agency Fitch came out with their assessment of our credit rating and with it our economy. And despite the widely distributed idea that we’re stuffed for generations - the credit agency called us an advanced and wealthy economy. Excuse me? They paid credit to macroeconomic corrections that started during Labour’s reign. I beg your pardon? They said New Zealand has a long-standing commitment of fiscal prudence. This is all running against the popular mantra that the last Government left an economy in tatters. It’s not in good shape but it’s also not in tatters. Fitch pointed out that the real problem with New Zealand’s economy is our high level of household debt and a high current account deficit. In other words, we save less than we spend and make up the difference by borrowing foreign capital. That’s on you and me and the long-running housing crisis rather than any crisis in Government spending. But you know, politics. Good politics says it’s all the fault of the last lot and the best Government policy is to do less. We’ve become wet, scared, and lacking mojo and confidence. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 26 Aug 2024 03:14:59 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-can-we-really-say-the-rock-star-economy-is-back/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-can-we-really-say-the-rock-star-economy-is-back/ The corner has been turned. The 5-year pandemic pandemonium has been tamed. Inflation is down and we've had the first interest rate cut since the Reserve Bank realised they’d overstimulated everything 5 years ago. Proof that tax cuts were not inflationary, says the Finance Minister. And that is the case, but it’s not a sign that the cost of living crisis is over. Inflation and cost of living increases are two heads of the same monster. Tax cuts are not being sucked up by discretionary spending. But they are by increases in charges brought about by a cut in Government spending, a continued housing shortage and its costs, and local Government trying to bridge the infrastructure deficit that’s been growing for decades. For example, my family's tax cuts are going straight onto increased rates and increased public transport costs now that the subsidies have ended. But put on your dancing shoes - said Thomas Couglan at the Herald in the weekend. The rock star economy is back. And we can thank Luxon and Willis. This is a nightmare scenario for the opposition. Well sure. Even though economists have been saying that would happen for a year now. In fact, Shamubeel Eeaqub has been saying all year that a lot of money has been dormant waiting for a turn in the interest rates as a signal that it’s all back on again. So here we go. But was the rock star economy really ever a rock star in the first place? And do we want it back? It was an economy of growth spurred on by high immigration, low interest rates, and big capital gains from a strangled housing market. It was a rock star as long as you had property that you could raise capital on. Throughout the glory days, many warned that there were no productivity gains, that there was too much reliance on dairy and tourism, that there was too much spending on fripperies, there was too little investment on infrastructure that made us competitive Can we really say the rock star economy is back when we wait a month for a doctor's appointment? Or 3 months for surgery in a rotting, past its use by hospital? Can we be a rockstar economy if we can't make enough electricity? Can we say we're a rock star economy when half our water is lost in leaks? The return of a Key Government-style rock star economy will benefit me and I'm grateful. But I want something better than that. It's time this country put its big boy pants on and fixed the stuff that's been plaguing us for decades and makes us seem like a third-world country. Then we will be a true rock star. And the people who manage that will be hailed as true masters of an economy. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 19 Aug 2024 02:52:57 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-is-the-long-winter-of-discontent-over-with-a-good-spring-to-come/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-is-the-long-winter-of-discontent-over-with-a-good-spring-to-come/ The winter solstice was on June 20 and 21. The longest night and the shortest day, but wisdom tells us that the depths of winter does not fall until 6 weeks after the solstice. It takes a while for actions to provoke a reaction. So right now is the depths of winter and much is at the worst it has ever been and ever will be. The All Blacks lost. In front of a disappointing crowd. Many are saying the poor crowd was down to economic hardship in the capital as the Government wages war on the size of the public service. The public service in Wellington is being slashed to cut the government spending to help the economy. However, this is all happening just as the Reserve Bank tries to fix their Covid mistake. We’re in a double squeeze.   In Covid, the Reserve Bank underestimated how well we’d operate under Covid lockdowns. With the benefit of hindsight, we know they splashed too much virtually free money. So now they have to strangle our economy after setting it on fire. It’s debatable whether we needed a double squeeze. But here we are. Whipping ourselves big time for future good. Meanwhile, the country is low on power. A dry winter and our gas reserves running out means that energy-dependent industries are finding it hard to make a buck and some are now on hiatus.   Reality check. We need gas. A fossil fuel and we have no alternative. Labour had a policy but no alternative. But another reality check. From the discovery of gas to coming online takes at least 10 years, so today’s shortage is on previous governments and gas companies. No matter what Simeon Brown says. We’re still low on health workers and the cuts on government spending suggest we’re not really going to splash cash on them. We’re still importing 100,000 people every year and not increasing contingencies to cope with their demands, like housing and health. But we’re more than happy to count whatever money they contribute to the economy. In John Key's years, they were called our rock star economy. To add to all of that we have one of the most negative governments I can remember who seem to enjoy telling us how bad we are and to blame it all on the past 6 years when the rot set in 30 years ago. They’ve followed a government that told us we had 9 years of neglect. No wonder we have a generation wanting to leave. Government after government promising the world and making no difference and telling us how rubbish we are. But then we watch our Olympians and their work ethic and we feel good. Then we discover that all regions are having an economic recovery. Except for Wellington for obvious reasons. And we have an OCR statement later this week. Could it be the long winter of discontent is finally over and we have green shoots and a good spring to come? New Zealand is where I want to be. We’re not the cot case the Government portrays. We do need to rediscover our mojo. We need to stop saying no to good ideas. We need better public transport, we need more houses, we need more gas. We need to look after ourselves. Mon, 12 Aug 2024 02:12:39 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-im-truly-confused-over-dr-anthony-jordans-resignation-from-pharmac/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-im-truly-confused-over-dr-anthony-jordans-resignation-from-pharmac/ I have always avoided getting into the Treaty principles debate.    It’s just too much of a swamp to get trapped in.    Either you’re for David Seymour's debate on a reset, in which case some will call you a racist.    Or you’re against a select committee debate means the racists will call you a wokester.    Both of which are gross exaggerations of what’s really going down, so it’s best to just avoid it.    However, with the resignation of Dr Anthony Jordan from the Pharmac board, I find myself truly confused.    Dr Jordan quit over the Government's treaty directive. David Seymour told Pharmac it was inappropriate for the agency to keep considering the Treaty of Waitangi in the health sector.   Dr Jordan said he "could not with good conscience" continue to work for the agency following that direction.    But as an outsider, I can’t understand how the treaty was factored into Pharmac’s decisions.    If ever there was an agency that’s work was based on need, it’s Pharmac. Everybody gets sick, everybody needs medicine. Pharmac’s job is to decide what medicines work for New Zealand. While it’s true that Māori get some illnesses more than others it’s still a need. If that need is great enough it may get funded.    It’s a bit like the belief that the Māori Health Authority and Te Whatu Ora’s setup meant that Māori received priority in healthcare. It’s a factor to be looked out for in identifying need but at the end of the day nobody jumped the queue. Once your need is identified you join a raceless list based on priority.    But Dr Anthony Jordan has now resigned, and I wonder if he’s ever considered that this will have more effect on Māori seeking equitable healthcare results from Māori than David Seymour's war on Treaty principles.    Dr Jordan is, by the way, the partner of a Labour MP and his resignation smacks to me more of political virtue signalling than standing up for Māori in the healthcare system.  The question for Dr Jordan is: Was it better to be fighting for Māori inside the tent or sitting around outside the tent moaning and achieving nothing at all?   Mon, 22 Jul 2024 02:32:52 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-can-we-ever-return-to-civil-public-discourse/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-can-we-ever-return-to-civil-public-discourse/ There is only one story in town. I realised this when I entered the newsroom and everyone was still itching to talk about it. Firstly, I am so glad the assassin was unsuccessful. The repercussions from this attempt are already dramatic enough. If Trump had been slaughtered, then the reaction could have been disastrous for the United States. Imagine January 6 and the insurrection and then multiply that horror by a thousand. Every Trumpist and their dog would be reaching for their guns right now and the chances of an uprising or a civil war would have increased dramatically. Obviously, there was a failure in the security detail, the assassination was only averted by a chance movement of the president's head, even though he was already in the sights of a Secret Service sniper. This is disturbing - but also unfortunate in that the rumour mill online now suggests that the Biden camp had deliberately scaled down security for Trump despite obvious signs the whole election race was getting tetchy. I don't believe this because the sniper had the shooter in his sights. The attempt was preventable, but the Secret Service has lost its edge. This is also understandable, considering this was the first attempt on a President in 40 years.Meanwhile, the escalating tension has been covered by the MSM for some time now, complete with warnings that it could all get too real. This means that many supporters at the rally believed it was the media's fault. "You wanted political violence well you got it". Or- "the liberal media is responsible", one person said. Warning it's rising is not wishing it would happen. This shows that many have fallen for the 'look over there' trick played by many politicians and media commentators. Shooting the messenger and not listening to the message is a weakness. When a truth is not liked by a politician they attack the media. They've been doing this for decades.And then tension in the States is spreading. In my whole life, I have never heard more commentary on the left and the right. There is no left and right in America. Their left is right of our National Party. But there is a real battle between liberals and conservatives. And it centres on touch paper issues like immigration and abortion and governmental overreach in civic life. And the language used is extreme and exaggerated to drive home the points, and that creates anger and dispute. And we end up with the disunited states of America.And the real question is whether there can be a return to civil public discourse. Biden has already expressed this and a desire to bring unity back to the United States in an address from the Oval Office.And I will ask the question - can the US discover unity, or have we gone too far down a track of division? Mon, 15 Jul 2024 02:46:55 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-ferry-saga-is-a-pox-on-both-national-and-labour/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-ferry-saga-is-a-pox-on-both-national-and-labour/ I wasn't here last week because I was attending a funeral. A dear friend. 58 years old. Gut cancer. A reminder to us all- live life. Don't put things off. So, last week I thought I'd talk about the ferry debate and I thought that the issue would be over by now. But it's not. It rumbles on like the stubbed toe it is. Today, the Government receives a report that will outline some of the options going forward and what cancellation of the ferries will cost. This is not an insubstantial amount. Industry sources believe it's $200-$300 million dollars. Supporters of the Government say that's a bargain compared to spending billions on unnecessary rail infrastructure. And that answered a question I'd had all along. I've been confused at the continual assertion that the ferries were gold plated. They appear to be a very reasonable price, mostly because they were ordered during the Covid lull and the shipbuilders were grateful for the business. Yes they were bigger, and yes that means work on the wharves. But these wharves have remained unchanged for 50 years and needed an upgrade. Particularly the Kaiwharawhara port in Wellington. It's seismically vulnerable, so no matter what boats we eventually order, there will be a huge costs in earthquake proofing. There are no cheaper second hand options, otherwise known as the Corollas of the ferry world. No the reasons they are gold plated is because they are rail capable and National is no friend of railways. This is the party that sold the railways to Toll, who then asset stripped it to such an extent we bought it back for $1. They stopped the electrification of the Main Trunk line and stood in way of the CRL until they no longer could. They also gave way to the trucking lobby allowing trucks of more than 44 tonnes on our road. Killing rail freight and causing potholes that they're now spending $4 billion to fix. It's this sort of difference in opinion between Labour and National that is causing our paralysis in infrastructure, and this example is one of the worse. Meanwhile, I wonder if anyone has been investigating what the costs will be to convert these ferries into road ferries only. Because frankly, I can't see any better deal anytime soon. And time is of the essence. The Cook Strait crossing is part of our State Highway 1. Whether it's rail or trucks, tourists or cars, it is a major piece of our supply chain and to have allowed it to get into such disrepair and with no real solution in sight is a pox on both the National and Labour houses. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 01 Jul 2024 02:23:33 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-politicisation-of-city-designs-is-why-nothing-ever-happens-anymore/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-politicisation-of-city-designs-is-why-nothing-ever-happens-anymore/ So I went to a party at the weekend. Quite a swanky one. Negronis and burgers and all sorts of people. Judges and doctors and advertising people and even musicians.  An old mate was there, a card-carrying lefty.  We're chatting and he says he's part of an urbanism group. Studying and advocating for urban development, and he says, "you right-wing ZB types would hate it."  So I said, "I beg your pardon?"  What part of having a well-designed and functional city is either left-wing or right-wing? It's not about politics it's about practicality. Who doesn't want a functioning public transport system? Who doesn't want accommodation solutions for the poor and the young so they don't have to leave the cities for a house? By the way right-wingers love trains. Mussolini made them run on time.  The politicisation of city designs is why nothing ever happens anymore and our cities just get worse and worse.  So it was good to open the paper on Sunday and see the Auckland mayor talking about that city's abortive light rail plans.  He said it was good that the Government killed Labour's plan off because it was disastrously handled.  The main problem with it was the cost which had been calculated at 400 million dollars a kilometre. Mayor Brown said he was recently in a town in France, the size of Christchurch, who have built a very successful light rail, at a cost of 50 million a kilometre. Nearly 90 per cent cheaper?  Then he went into all the reasons big projects cost so much in New Zealand. The gold plating of design, the contracts granted to constructors who are also suppliers who have no reason to contain costs, and then there's the politics. What idiot wanted to put a light rail into a tunnel? Michael Wood, that's who.  But the problem with all of this is that a good idea is thrown away because of bad management.  When Labour came in in 2017, AT had a 6 billion dollar light rail plan, ready to go. But Labour and then the New Zealand Superannuation Fund thought they could do it better and suddenly it was 15 billion because of the tunnelling and it stalled and then National killed it.  Much was made of the 228 million spent with no track laid which shows us how little people know of projects. That money was spent on geo-tech reports and surveys and buying land and planning. It's still all valid now and to throw it out is a blatant waste of taxpayers' money.  Light rail is not left wing. Light rail is not a bad idea. Labour was just a bad government that cocked it up.  LISTEN ABOVE.  Mon, 17 Jun 2024 02:31:38 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-if-you-want-to-get-tough-on-crime-you-have-to-get-tough-on-gun-ownership/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-if-you-want-to-get-tough-on-crime-you-have-to-get-tough-on-gun-ownership/ I presume the lead story in the Herald on Sunday was welcomed by police and those behind our stronger gun laws.   An Auckland pensioner and his daughter have been caught for legally buying 13 guns for the Comancheros motorcycle gang.   It's the latest of dozens of discoveries by police of licensed gun owners buying for gangs who cannot legally purchase guns.   It was validation of good old-fashioned police work. Over the past 4 years the police have analysed more than 350,000 sales records looking for suspicious patterns of spending.    They then correlate the purchases with the records of gun owners, and they discover the gang's straw buyers.   But to me, it also validates the strengthening of the laws back in 2019 after the Christchurch mosque massacre.   That saw the banning of military-style semi-automatics, stricter rules on the “fit and proper” test to hold a license, the establishment of a gun registry, and a set of rules designed to ensure gun clubs and ranges are safe places.   At the time, gun owners made out that the laws criminalised legal gun owners which was a massive over-exaggeration.  It criminalised a type of gun only. A type of gun that non MSSA owners find intimidating and unnecessary. A gun that turns any idiot into a killing machine as long as they can handle the recoil.   And the new rules also told the citizens of New Zealand that ownership of a gun is not a right but a privilege that must be earned.     But they also say that once it's earnt there's no problem at all as long as it's not a military-style automatic.   And slowly it's beginning to make sense to even the law's hardest detractors.   Act campaigned on a full repeal of the legislation and the minister in charge is Act's Nicole Mckee   She is also the former spokesperson for the council of licensed firearms owners.   She was also interviewed in the paper yesterday where she said gun owners hoping for a rollback will be disappointed.   Act campaigned on greater access to MSSAs and scrapping the gun registry, but these didn’t make it into coalition agreements.   Instead, the National-Act agreement committed to repealing the regulations around gun clubs and shooting ranges - which Mckee has now backed off from doing completely - a review of the registry and a rewrite of the arms act.   But, at the moment, the laws are being seen to work.  And here's the rub.  If you support getting tough on crime then you must also support getting tough on gun ownership.  LISTEN ABOVE. Mon, 10 Jun 2024 01:28:49 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-im-looking-forward-to-budget-week/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-im-looking-forward-to-budget-week/ Welcome to Budget Week. Which I am looking forward to. After all the warnings from economists and world agencies like the OECD, that this is the wrong part of an economic cycle to bring in tax cuts, it ill be interesting to see the way they're going to pull it off. Personally, I can't see the budget being nearly as harsh, nearly as radical or nearly as transformational and beneficial as all the politicians say. I've already decided to call it the bad day at the office budget. Which we'll all get through. Meanwhile, we're getting little bones thrown at us to keep the headlines flowing. $50 million odd to hire teachers feels like a small change when you look at the entire education wage budget. My grizzle today is about doctors. The Waikato times weekend paper featured a couple of young doctors at Waikato Hospital and their impossible workload. Both are just 27 years old, 4 years out of school. 10 years into learning their trade. One ended out working alone on a cardiology ward with 100 patients in it. There should have been 3 doctors on duty. The other, a medical registrar, told a similar story about how patients in agony in E.D spent 12 hours waiting for care. Things are not getting better anytime soon. The population is growing, people are living longer, patients are getting sicker and arrive more sick because they haven't seen a GP. Because there's not enough GPs either. Meanwhile our underpaid, over worked 27 year olds have 6 figure student loans to pay off. So when choosing their specialty they often choose the better paying so good by psychiatry, hello dermatology. This perfect storm of dysfunction is the result of decisions made a long time ago. Not just the last regime. Student debt dissuades many except the determined or the already wealthy. Limiting our doctors' numbers. Immigration has been allowed to blow out for decades without any increase in doctors in training. So fewer doctors per person Entry numbers to med school are still embarrassingly low. So once again fewer doctors What have we been thinking for the past 40 years? We have a malaise. Not enough doctors, teachers, police, houses, roads, public transport, energy generation. The list goes on. We're like a 2 bedroom shack trying to house 10 people in it. But every 3 years someone comes in and wallpapers one room. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 27 May 2024 04:10:32 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-tax-cuts-id-argue-that-neither-side-is-looking-at-the-full-picture/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-tax-cuts-id-argue-that-neither-side-is-looking-at-the-full-picture/ Well... Has there been an earth tremor in the ideological universe. Are some capitalists wavering and beginning to argue for a pause to tax cuts and even a capital gains tax?   One of my favourite reads is the business section of the Weekend Herald on a Saturday. It has the best articles and opinion pieces - but this week was especially interesting.   On page six was Steven Joyce with a piece called ‘The Case for Tax Cuts’.   He toed the centre-right political line that tax cuts are affordable and a good thing because they give hard working Kiwis a reward for their hard work which will keep them working hard and hopefully harder.   He pointed out that the tax cuts are tax bracket adjustments for brackets that haven't changed for 14 years. Which means higher tax rates now kick in for people who are not any richer than 14 years ago, in fact they're poorer.   He says to achieve economic growth we need to increase the rewards for working an hour, and it's only by growing fast that we can afford the infrastructure, the public services and the lifestyle we aspire to.   So far so ideologically sound.   But then on page 2 is Fran O'Sullivan, former NBR editor and now the Herald's Head of Business and friend to the capitalist world.   And she says bugger politics and let's get rational.   She says it's unfathomable that taking steps to address the Government's structural deficit is regarded as politically toxic. She's talking about selling state assets, and restraining spending but also taxing capital gains.   It's that last bit that's fascinating.   The point being that we're losing our teachers, cops and health staff because we can't afford to pay them.    Meanwhile, our hospitals, roads and schools are falling apart because we can't afford to fix them.     But all that pay and development is funded by taxes.     But the tax take is dropping because of a self-inflicted recession by the Reserve Bank and tax cuts.   Fran is repeating the lines that economists and the OECD and the iIMF have all said in recent months.    The country has to pay for stuff and yet we're hell bent on making the country poorer in the hope that one day we will be richer.   I'd argue that neither side is looking at the full picture.  LISTEN ABOVE.    Mon, 20 May 2024 01:13:42 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-auckland-transport-is-proof-you-cant-control-a-cco/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-auckland-transport-is-proof-you-cant-control-a-cco/ Now, I'm not part of the tribe who automatically thinks that Auckland Transport is a bunch of ideological toss-pots who want to force us out of our cars. I'm the sort of urbanist that gets there's a limit to the number of cars that can use our roads, and when that limit is hit then you have offer choices so we can all get somewhere. I don't reflexively hate cycleways or bus lanes. I comprehend congestion charges and I'm excited for the Central Rail Link and even Light Rail. Mostly because I've seen the good a co-ordinated public transport system has done elsewhere in the world. But AT's 24/7 parking charges change is beyond the pale. Having developed the city centre with apartments, it will inconvenience residents who have been trying to take their cars off the roads by living in town. It's going to cost ratepayers. Either directly, such as the residents who reckon it will cost them $11,000 a year to park their car now. Or by funding a bureaucracy to run resident parking schemes. It's said it will affect hospo workers. It won't stop punters who tend to cab or even use public transport into town because they're on the lash. The people it will really affect are the minimum waged workers who need to get in and out of the city outside public transport times - and who are least able to afford it. But the most chilling part of the story is that the mayor and the Council are powerless to stop it, even though they've helped to cause the problem. Councils fund council controlled organisations but they don't run them. In this case, the Council looked to reduce its funding so AT unilaterally increased its external fundraising by hiking the parking charges. But that is AT’s constitutional right. The main Council body, including the elected representatives, have no operational control. Rodney Hide designed them that way so politicians couldn't get the filthy, compromised hands on big assets. Which is why I've always laughed about National's plan for council controlled operations to run all our water. Councils may own and fund CCOs, but they certainly don't control them. Just look at Auckland Transport. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 13 May 2024 03:49:15 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-new-government-deal-is-three-waters-lite/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-new-government-deal-is-three-waters-lite/ I was surprised that the news that Auckland had inked a deal with the Government over water wasn't the lead story on last night's TV news. I would have thought that John Campbell would have had a deep dive on its repercussions for Auckland and the country. Basically, water and housing are the biggest issues for this country because every single person, business and animal needs water - and we all need a roof over our head. But maybe the kids we call journalists these days have never got water and its reforms. There is a lot about the deal that has not been said. Compared to 3 Waters, it's essentially 2 waters. Watercare deals with drinking water and human waste. Waste is sewage. That's a billion-dollar-a-year operation. But they don't deal with stormwater and drains. That's called sewerage and that's dealt with in Auckland by an entity called Healthy Waters. Now that's a $200 million dollar a year operation. It's not a council controlled operation. It will still be funded by council borrowings. So when people talk about polluted waterways being fixed, that's not really covered by the Watercare deal. Which is partly why Auckland's water rates increases are still at 7.3 percent. That 7.3 percent is, as we all know, higher than the rate of inflation and a major part of the cost-of-living crisis which the Government promised to tackle. But that's another kettle of wastewater. This deal happened because Auckland is the only council with CCO or council controlled organisations. They are the product of Auckland's amalgamation into a Super City by Rodney Hide. CCOs were actually designed to prevent Councillors fooling about in core business they know nothing about. And because of that they've never been overly popular. Yet it is claimed that this keeps water under local control. Ask Auckland's Mayors and Councillors about how much control they really exert over CCO's like Watercare, or Auckland Transport, or Auckland Unlimited. So, Watercare will have the remit, which is to provide water and remove waste. Operationally, they're in full control of their processes. The Council's control is limited to a majority of places on the board. So just a reminder that CEOs run companies not boards. They purely appoint a CEO and then assess how well the CEO has done. The Auckland deal was low hanging fruit for the Government, because the structure was already in place. The real test is how this works for everywhere else in New Zealand. The first real test will come this week when Horowhenua, Kapiti, Wairarapa, the Hutt Valley, Porirua and Wellington City meet on Friday to work together on a plan for a greater Wellington region water deal. They will have to set up an entity with bureaucracy and thrash out a deal about which region receives what in funding. Just like 3 Waters. Meanwhile, the good people in the countryside not adjacent to cities will be wondering if there's any white knights riding to their rescue regarding water borrowing. Or if they're going to be left behind. To me this deal is 3 Waters lite, with no ‘co-governance’. And that's it. Mon, 06 May 2024 02:46:03 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-theres-worry-the-government-cuts-will-go-too-far/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-theres-worry-the-government-cuts-will-go-too-far/ New Zealand seems to be waking up to an issue I thought would have caused more concern. As part of the bonfire of the public service, the Government seems to be eyeing cuts to our public research and development sector. Principally that means the Callaghan Institute, the Crown agency that employs about 300 people and has been the target of attack, particularly from David Seymour. He sees the agency's work as being a form of corporate welfare, a bugbear of ACT's. Other ministries and departments conduct significant research funded by the taxpayer. The Department of Conservation has developed major techniques and processes that have been adopted around the world. The Primary Industries ministry also funds valuable research, including work into climate change mitigation. It's feared that all this work will be affected as the Government saves costs in the backroom. Last week, Stats NZ revealed that private industry is starting to put their money where their mouth is. The New Zealand business sector has shown a robust increase in research and development (R&D) spending, reaching a new high of $3.7 billion in 2023. That's $540 million increase, or 17 percent, from the previous year, marking the largest annual growth since annual data collection began in 2018. There's value in research spending. So it would be short-sighted to reduce Governmental spending on it R&D funding cuts could mean we will lose our best and brightest scientists, like those at Callaghan, to overseas countries who are investing in science. As we enter a regime determined to cut spending I think it's good to remember a famous quote by Oscar Wilde. He said - " a fool is a person who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing". The worry is that the Government goes too far and starts to cut things of value. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 29 Apr 2024 03:57:51 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-we-need-to-put-perspective-on-the-current-state-of-our-economy/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-we-need-to-put-perspective-on-the-current-state-of-our-economy/ It is fair to say the country is not in a good place right now. Job cuts dominate the headlines. A double-dip recession came true. Inflation is robbing us of our purchasing power. Last week an IPSOS poll found that 60 percent of us think that New Zealand is in decline and 65 percent believe that the economy is rigged to benefit the rich and the powerful. And when people bemoan our situation and wonder how we got here a common response is to blame the Labour Government and the Reserve Bank. A common refrain is Robertson blew all the money so we can't afford to do anything now, even something as important as paying our police more so they don't quit or leave the country. You also hear that Labour caused a debt so large our children and their children will be paying for it for decades to come. So I pricked up my ears last week when Mike Hosking talked to ASB economist Nick Tuffley about inflation and the economy in general. Mike asked him how bad was our economy and he said pretty bad but still nowhere near what happened after the GFC. To remind you, the GFC ended early in 2009 and John Key's government was in charge. To remedy the situation we borrowed, we opened up immigration and we went through austerity to a far greater degree than we're doing now. And it worked. Need I remind you that within 5 years we were described as having a rock-star economy. This is not to diminish the situation that we're in right now but it is to put a perspective on things. But Nick was also asked why inflation and bad economic tidings were still happening here when other economies like the States, the UK and Australia are bouncing back. Economies with far greater debt and spending. Tuffley essentially blamed our static productivity. He says considering we imported nearly 3 percent more population over the past 2 years our GDP should have raised, but it didn't. We seem incapable of making more money per person year on year. And it's a problem that we've had ever since Ruth Richardson's Mother of all Budgets early in the 90s. And it's a problem that exists no matter the colour of the government. It's something we need to look to ourselves for not something we can blame on the government. And it relates to the comments that Christopher Luxon made overseas that angered some when he boasted that New Zealand is now open for business. We've always been open for business. The real question is how much business are we open for? Mon, 22 Apr 2024 01:27:57 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-media-model-is-broken-because-of-fear/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-media-model-is-broken-because-of-fear/ Since we were last together, the collapse of television news and current affairs has continued. And with it, we have been subjected to a lot of highfalutin thinking about the metaphysical and cultural reasons why linear TV is dying. You know - go woke go broke. Or- this is because nobody trusts you, because you're all raving lefties. Meanwhile, Melissa Lee has been asked what she is going to do about it, when it's obvious that there's very little she can do. These are commercial entities that are suffering at the hands of market forces that have been long predicted to hit. Commercial broadcasting and journalism is an easy business model. Inventory control and labour costs. In other words, you can't employ any more people than the money you make from the advertising. Hearing that more than 300 were employed by 九一星空无限hub was pretty revealing. That's a lot of salaries. For some perspective, 九一星空无限 employs just over 200 for it's papers and radio and digital content. And the lid has been sinking steadily for a years now. That's because digital players are siphoning off $100 million a year in advertising content Despite the 6 o'clock news having the highest spot rates, they were unable to make the budget balance Faced with this environment I was confused after Warner took over 3 that they added to the news output with full-service late-night shows and more. They increased their costs at a time when revenue was going down. It seemed to me that no matter how woke or unwoke or how biased or unbiased, 九一星空无限hub was increasingly modelled to lose money without a huge recalibration. Meanwhile, despite warning bells sounding about the theft of revenue by digital companies, our TV operators seemed timid to adapt. Facebook and Google sell clicks. They gain news content and then clicks when punters repost links. Yet the links from so many news operators continue to be free. There's a reason the Herald is now behind a paywall, so at least we can clip the ticket. When we did it the industry thought we were audacious. It's beginning to look very smart. Furthermore, TVNZ in particular has made a foray into the digital world with TVNZ+. But it's free to air and the ad inventory is so low it's better to watch it online with time shifting, thereby missing out on the ads that pay for the whole shebang. The model is broken not because of politics or bias but because of fear. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 15 Apr 2024 01:45:09 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-new-zealand-knows-the-price-of-everything-and-the-value-of-nothing/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-new-zealand-knows-the-price-of-everything-and-the-value-of-nothing/ I vividly remember the first time I saw Christchurch Cathedral. I was 10 so it was 1973. I was on tour with the Auckland Boys Choir. It was winter and it was twilight and we went into the Square, which was bustling with cars and buses and Victorian buildings and a marvellous magic shop. People wore overcoats and scarves and there was the cathedral. It as like being transported to England. We went in to listen to the cathedral's boys choir performing Evensong and my choirmaster said they were the best in the land. And they were. I say this after the news that the restoration may be put on hold due to the escalating cost. I can't comprehend stopping something halfway through. It's too late to go back. Forward is the only way to go. To paraphrase the Prime Minister - we have passed through the decision gate and in passing that gate there can only be commitment to finishing the job, even if it seems to be escalating out of control. It's called aspiration. It's called determination. Perhaps this is the lack of ambition that our Prime Minister accuses us of. Opponents say tear it down, because in 100 years who will know the difference? But using that logic, why do anything outstanding? I'm reminded of the Notre Dame in Paris which will open to the public in December - 5 years and 7 months after being gutted by fire. They have harvested an entire oak forest for the timber and raised 2 billion dollars through donations. French billionaires are scrambling over each other to fund the thing so that their name lives on through generations. The cathedral is 160 years old this year. Notre Dame is 860 years old. But they're worth the same to their cities. Marking stones to the start of great cities. And in 100 years, who'll care how much it cost? Sometimes it seems that New Zealand knows the price of everything but the value of nothing. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 08 Apr 2024 01:55:00 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-lets-put-sailgp-on-at-an-appropriate-venue-and-move-on/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-lets-put-sailgp-on-at-an-appropriate-venue-and-move-on/ I was not going to talk about dolphin-gate- but from first thing this morning, everyone was talking about it. Sir Russell Coutts has had an epic meltdown over the cancellation of Saturday racing of his SailGP series. He had to refund the spectator's tickets, which meant at least a third of his income went up in smoke. Now he's belittling all New Zealand for their bureaucratic torpor that stops go-getters like him getting their way. I would have raced. And if a foiling boat traveling at 80 kilometres an hour ran over a calving dolphin, turning it into sashimi, I could then say we learnt our lesson- and please pass the rice and the wasabi. But I think it's important to realise how we got here. Coutts sailed Lyttleton last year. With dolphin protocols. 1 race-day got delayed. He knew the Lyttleton problem but carried on. This year he decided to race in Auckland. He wanted to build a stadium and hospitality on the site of a former oil and chemical storage site. Auckland said you can't put people and food on poisoned land. Russell said stuff you and flounced back to Lyttleton. There was no investigation of alternative Auckland sites. Or even going to Wellington. He went back to Christchurch and signed a contract knowing all the protocols and the possibility of disruption. He knew the Lyttleton problem but carried on, hoping for the best. When the Saturday race was delayed because of a mammal on course the telly coverage, owned by Russell, promptly played a promo praising SailGP's respect for the environment. That they were powered by nature and they look after our marine mammal buddies. It was good press. Until the dolphin didn't move on. Then he unleashed a spray about New Zealand holding people like him back. I don't think it's in his construction to admit he made bad choices and to assume some personal responsibility. And then he tried to make it seem like he was a victim. I don't think this is a left versus right issue. Or a nature versus industry issue. It was all good until Sir Russell lost some money. So take a deep breath. Realise New Zealand loves the product. Put it on in an appropriate venue and let's move on, shall we? LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 25 Mar 2024 00:39:15 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-did-the-government-know-that-their-pre-election-promises-were-unaffordable/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-did-the-government-know-that-their-pre-election-promises-were-unaffordable/ So if you've listened to me for any length of time, you'll know I respect Liam Dann very much indeed. Liam is the Herald's Business Editor at Large. He hosts podcasts and writes stories about the business world and he's been at the NZ Herald for 21 years. He's at pains to stress he's not an economist. He's the guy who interviews economists and then translates their technical stuff into news we can all use and we need. He's just written a book called Barbecue Economics, which explains all this stuff for the average man and woman on the street. He also writes a column every Sunday, and yesterday he asked the question I've been asking myself for a long time. "Is the Government’s shock about this 'worse than expected' economy political theatre or just ignorance?" Last August, Nicola Willis stated the cupboard was bare, and we all knew that. They then campaigned on fixing it all up. Killing inflation. Solving the cost of living crisis. Building the missing infrastructure. And then on top of it all, giving up on $14.5 billion worth of tax revenue by giving us a tax cut. But some of us wondered that if the cupboard was indeed bare, was all this possible or was this exaggerated rhetoric to get votes based on some magical thinking that all will be fine in the end? Now the Finance Minister is saying the economy is worse than expected and maybe some of the policies can't happen. I'm not sure it is worse than expected, because the government's accounts have never been secret- thanks to the Fiscal Responsibility Act introduced in 1994 to stop nasty surprises. And people were warning National of this last year. Liam Dann reckons: "To put it generously, it looks like National was using best-case economic scenarios to justify policy promises that were marginal at best." The question that remains is whether National knew the promises they were making were unaffordable or whether they just don't know what's going on. Or to put it more bluntly. Are they stupid or were they lying? And if they were exaggerating their ability to afford their policies, did they think we'd be too stupid to realise? We all got sick and tired of the last Government gaslighting us and making promises they can't keep. I'm not going to be happy if it happens again. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 11 Mar 2024 01:25:20 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-newshub-has-been-broke-for-ages/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-newshub-has-been-broke-for-ages/ So the culture wars that erupted after the closing of 九一星空无限hub continued over the weekend. The go woke-go broke crowd have been out in force trying to prove their claims. Economist Rob MacCulloch has written a piece entitled: 'Economics 101 explains why 九一星空无限hub bankrupted.' In it, he uses a David Farrar survey of Kiwiblog readers that guessed at the political leaning of media offerings. Knowing that Kiwiblog is openly right wing and its readers are of one mind already puts a big question mark on the findings. But anyway, Rob determined that all the media is left wing except the Platform and 九一星空无限talk ZB and this is what caused 九一星空无限hub to go broke. 九一星空无限flash, 九一星空无限hub has been broke for ages. Economics 101 says if you load your company up with debt and then enter a recession that heavily affects marketing budgets- then you go bust. 九一星空无限hub has existed on the kindness and deep pockets of its owners. Warner Bros. Discovery are themselves in difficulty and they thought nothing of cutting off a New Zealand newsroom, and in doing so, making 15 percent of New Zealand journalists redundant. David Farrar's survey also says the Herald is the most left wing. Which is exactly what I was thinking as I read opinion pieces from Stephen Joyce, Richard Prebble, and Bruce Cotterill- and even current Health Minister Shane Reti was given free reign in recent days. But I guess all it takes is Shaneel Lal, Shane Te Pou and Rod Emmerson to convince you it's a lefty rag. So it occurred to me over the weekend that the problem with the media is not bias, but not enough bias. Overseas, you know exactly what you want and what you get. In the UK, you read the Guardian or you read the Times. In America, you watch CNN or you watch Fox. You choose your echo chamber and you choose never to challenge yourself with other ways of thinking. Seems like New Zealand is going the same way. You may want to ask yourself if this is a good thing. Correction- an earlier version of this article said that Stephen Franks wrote the article referred to above. This has since been corrected to say it was written by Rob MacCulloch. Mon, 04 Mar 2024 01:16:45 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-nationals-state-of-the-nation-address-was-blame-game-politics/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-nationals-state-of-the-nation-address-was-blame-game-politics/ When National formed it's new government there was a snappy little phrase that supporters were fond of using. Thank God the adults are back in charge. Suggesting that the left wing Labour Government were naive, inefficient fools who had driven the country into the ground like a 12 year old in a ram raid. National would lead a government run by grown ups who know what to do and how to do it and then actually DO it. So when Christopher Luxon presented his State of the nation address yesterday, the expectation was that the grown ups were about to tell us how all our problems will be fixed. What we got was a warning that times were going to get tough. What we got was a promise that our PM would not shy away from tough talk.  What we got was a lot of talk about beneficiaries. They were told the free ride was over. And then at the end an admission to reporters that the Government was yet to explain how it would address and finance the solutions to our woes. We also got a lot of talk about how bad the last Government was and the implication that they were the root of the parlous state we find ourselves in. That our water problems and our transport problems and our health problems and our labour problems and our housing problems and our energy problems and our weather problems and our farming problems and of course our economic problems all rest with one cohort of politicians who were in power from 2017 to 2023 It's that sort of blame game that got the Labour Government called childish. I would like to think that this government might have resisted that urge. To be the adults. I think what many of us want is governance that is future focussed. That considers a time 30 years in the future when our population has doubled or even tripled. That acknowledges that the mess we're in has taken many different governments and decades to create and will take many different governments to fix. The most powerful part of Christopher Luxon's speech was the line that New Zealand is fragile. We are. At a very fundamental level. And have been for a long time. And will be for a very longtime. So the sooner the adults turn up with a real plan that we can all get behind and that will work, the better. Mon, 19 Feb 2024 00:18:25 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-this-weekend-showed-the-greens-are-fast-becoming-unelectable/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-this-weekend-showed-the-greens-are-fast-becoming-unelectable/ So two big video interviews over the weekend. Firstly, Tucker Carlson interviewed Vladimir Putin. Tucker said it was because no-one but him had bothered to ask which is BS. There's always people in the media claiming they're the only people holding power to account. My feel is that Putin knew Tucker was desperate for the scoop following his embarrassing downfall at Fox, so obliged him as a useful idiot. But that's not to denigrate the appearance. It was great to watch and listen to Putin. Know your enemy, they say, but you can't if no-one lets you hear them. The interview was reported 2 ways. Either Putin keen for World War 3 or Putin keen to negotiate for peace. He alluded to both things but what I took as more chilling was his half hour history lesson on the Russian/Ukraine situation. It went back centuries. It showed his depth of feeling. Māori would understand, having such long held historical grievance. It's a depth that means he's not pulling out or pulling back. In fact, his keenness for peace negotiation only requires USA to stop funding Ukraine. He's playing a long game. This conflict will only stop when Putin has gone which is no time soon. So the other interview was Jack Tame's conversation with Chloe Swarbrick. It was a shocker. Her refusal to understand how her Palestinian chants had been received was remarkable. This after mediation by the Human Rights Commission. This after Jewish members of her electorate had spoken with her. The left are famous opponents of hate speech, but to understand if speech is offensive you need to have the empathy to understand how the offence has been taken. Chloe seemed unable to comprehend the fear Jewish people have of that chant. She was unable to own any blame. The rest of the interview made me feel that the fresh and intelligent woman who entered parliament has been replaced by a hard line radical informed only by her own echo chamber. The Greens are in deep trouble. The Ghahraman resignation and forthcoming trial. James Shaw, the one calming influence, the man billed as a relationship builder, gone. The prospect of Davidson and Swarbrick ruling a radical socialist party. The damage is already evident in the polls this weekend with the Greens dropping 4.8 per cent to sit at 9 per cent. They're fast becoming unelectable. A socialist party that pays lip service to the environment and has forgotten about why they came into being in the first place. Mon, 12 Feb 2024 01:14:04 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-government-has-to-learn-perceptions-stick/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-the-government-has-to-learn-perceptions-stick/ So there was a little bit of excitement yesterday as Jack Tame caught the National Party spreading misinformation on Q+A. Chris Bishop was talking about dropping smokefree legislation and made the claim that there would only be one outlet in all of Northland. Tame had done his research and said there was more likely going to be 35, which resulted in a classic caught out face from Chis Bishop, who stuck to his line and said he understood there was only going to be 1. Unfortunately, Jack never asked him where that understanding came from. It came from the Prime Minister, who made the same claim earlier in the week. It was not questioned then, but there was more than enough time for the media to research it and wait for someone to use it again publicly. Which Bishop did and walked into a "gotcha" trap. Now you've got opponents of the Government jumping up and down going on about the lying Government. Which is a wild over-exaggeration. The factoid was not crucial to their argument about black market trade and gang involvement in tobacco. Mr Luxon did the right thing and came out and said his team made a mistake. He has urged them to fact check more before they give his Government talking points. But it's still a thing- and a lesson not to be loose with facts. As the Prime Minister noted last week about the Pubic Interest Journalism Fund - he stopped short of calling it bribery, but said there was a perception of it. And perceptions are dangerous. But not necessarily true. The Prime Minister has already been caught out amplifying incorrect statistics through the campaign, so there is a perception that making up statistics is their modus operandi. As the numbers of outlets was clearly and easily available, a perception could be made that policy is being formulated without sufficient research. Chris Bishop used to be a tobacco industry lobbyist. Now caught using misleading statistics to support continued sales of tobacco there could be a perceptions of favour for former employers- which is a bad look. The Prime Minister could be perceived to be in thrall of the Dairy Owners Association who have argued against prohibition, because it would wreck dairy profitability. The Labour Government found out that perceptions stick. Considering this new Government is only a week old, they might want to learn that lesson fast. Mon, 04 Dec 2023 01:35:11 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-is-this-what-we-can-expect-for-the-next-three-years/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-is-this-what-we-can-expect-for-the-next-three-years/ Congratulations to the new coalition Government, which was sworn in today by Governor General Dame Cindy Kiro. And as our new Prime Minister says- they're ready to get stuck in. But things are already getting better. Some say it's just because of the vibe. But don't discount plain good luck and timing. The so-called hermit kingdom is over. As we heard a week ago, nearly a quarter of a million people chose to emigrate to New Zealand in the past year. Today we learn tourism is up- and spending in the year to September hit $30 billion dollars. That's up $6.6 billion on the previous year - and pretty much back to pre-Covid levels. This while the international spend is still recovering. As Nicola Willis finally gets her warrant to fool with the economy, the economy appears to be turning a corner. In today's paper is a report that economists believe the Reserve Bank will not be raising interest rates anytime soon. It also reports that markets are predicting a rate cut as early as May and as many as 3 cuts through 2024. Which is great news for first-home buyers. With all this good news, there's still one thing that bugs me about this Government and that's the disconnect that you feel when a tax cut has to be funded by a tax rise. You'll remember that was the problem I had during the election where the tax cut for the squeezed middle was funded by a wealth tax on rich foreigners buying houses. For a Government averse to taxes, it seemed off brand. The new version came up after the Government's surprise axing of the smokefree programme, and I say surprise because no one can find mention of it in any pre-election manifesto but axed it has been on New Zealand First and ACT's insistence. Yesterday on 九一星空无限hub Nation, Nicola Willis said extra revenue from more widespread cigarette sales would help fund tax cuts in lieu of the now-scrapped foreign buyers tax. This was a loose thing to say prompting accusations that long-term public health had been sacrificed for a short-term cash-grab. Which is a bad way to start a term. It's not rocket science. If you cut a tax you cut expenditure. You don't tax a fall guy to make it work. That's inequitable. Jack Tame asked Nicola Willis if she accepted more people would die because of cancelling the #Smokefree policy. Willis says- "I have not seen advice or analysis of that so I am not prepared to answer that question". FFS, this is what we can expect in the next three years. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 27 Nov 2023 00:22:18 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-theres-big-stones-in-the-path-to-coalition/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-theres-big-stones-in-the-path-to-coalition/ So, still no Government. It's not a biggie. Remember, they only started talking after the specials were counted so it's only been a fortnight. But then again, why did they only start talking after the specials were counted? But still not a biggie.  Meanwhile, all those getting stuck into Winston are not using their knowledge of history or politics.  He doesn't have to be in Government. He can say no easily and then bring the Government down whenever he wants. Yes, he's the tail and National's the dog but the dog needs Winston's tail far more than Winston needs the dog.  And when it comes to the difficulties of the negotiation, many seem to forget that Winston is an old-fashioned anti-globalist who hates immigration and the stress it puts on our infrastructure.  They seem not to remember that it was Winston's idea to slap a foreign buyers ban in our property market. And he was part of the team that did in 2017.  But letting foreign buyers back in is at the centre of National's tax plan.  So they're asking New Zealand First to do an absolute U-turn in terms of policy and principles. That's a big ask. It was always going to be. It was evident weeks before the election. And Luxon has already hinted that the foreign buyers ban may stay. That's a big U-turn too.  If there's something to criticise National for, it's dropping their 2 ticks blue campaign and letting Winston in. They have much in common but the differences are big stones in the path of coalition.  Meanwhile, while the cat's away Wayne Brown comes out to play. National's policy of dropping the Auckland fuel tax is leading the mayor to ways to raise money to build the roads. All of a sudden congestion tax is on the fast track.  It's proof that there is no such thing as a free tax cut. National wants to drop the tax to give Aucklanders more money in the back pocket, but as Wayne Brown points out that comes at the expense of roads. So what do you want more? Roads or tax cuts. Tax cuts or congestion taxes.  LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 20 Nov 2023 00:51:19 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-enjoy-this-respite-from-criticism-of-new-zealand-it-wont-last/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-enjoy-this-respite-from-criticism-of-new-zealand-it-wont-last/ This is my first ZB shift since the election brought in our new Government-to-be. And I must say it’s been the most fantastic fortnight, until we lost the Rugby World Cup final due to first half sloppiness and a trigger-happy TMO. But we had our chances. We can’t complain. You have to play to the rules. But really, it’s been 2 weeks of calm and confidence and a feeling of recovery and renewal after the election Business Confidence went from a number in the 20s to a number in the 50s overnight. Inflation came in in the 5s, despite most expectations being half a percent higher. Credit agencies said we’re in ok shape and didn’t make our borrowing more expensive. New Zealand came in 4th in a global tax competitiveness survey. The real estate section in the paper suddenly doubled in size. Real estate agents starting calling telling me to invest now, because the property market is about to explode. I even felt that crime has stopped. Just like that. Until I checked and saw there has been a ram raid. In Waihi Beach at 3.40am. 4 perps captured by police. Suddenly the cops are tough on crime. And suddenly I realised what had changed- nothing. What was different was no chorus of wet and whingy commentators and politicians telling anyone who was listening that this country was wrecked. You know the mantra: “The second to last economy in the world. Heading towards Venezuela. A crime rate to rival the most lawless areas of the world. The last bastion of communist dictatorship in the western world. Our children’s children’s children will be paying for this Government’s 6 years in charge” It is such a relief not to hear the doomsayers yelling with their megaphones into a dark and depressing echo chamber, every day. Trying to convince us that only they know the answers and New Zealanders wouldn’t know success if it slapped us in the face and said congratulations. I’ve always said that the country was not doing nearly as well as Labour thought it was, but it’s also not nearly as bad as National would like to have you believe. We’ve been talked out of our mojo. It reminds you to always be wary of politicians and their slogans. They don’t seek a legacy. Just your vote so they’ve got a job for 3 years. So enjoy the respite from criticism of this country, because it won’t last. As soon as the specials are counted we’ll back to the race to the bottom. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 30 Oct 2023 02:55:06 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-new-zealand-is-confused/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-new-zealand-is-confused/ So the political party that didn’t know what it stood for anymore and offered no real future lost the election to the party that offered tax cuts that are affordable only by increasing taxes on the wealthy and then claim that we’re back on track.  I’d argue that New Zealand is confused.  How else can you explain a nation that just 3 years ago so gratefully gave a red tide to Labour and now switches to a blue tsunami after a thousand days?  I think the theme of the election is more that it was time for a change than getting back on track.    It’s been an horrific four years of pandemics, cyclones, floods, fires. On top of that some ineptitude as Labour gave us slogans rather than policies. Exactly what they criticise National for.  It was decades worth of angst in just six years so we changed the one thing we could.  So National get their turn.  But the wholesale switcheroos we’ve seen in the past two elections are not a good thing for the country.  When Labour took an outright majority in 2020 we lost some of our best National MPs. The retirement of senior MPs like Joyce and English took the wise rudders.  Now the same thing has happened to Labour.  The upshot is a parliament full of newbies on both sides with no real depth of experience and knowledge in governance.  And governance is not like regular business. If you don’t believe me read Stephen Joyce’s book about his experiences as a newly minted Transport Minister.    Yes Minister is a documentary not a comedy.  Such dramatic flip flops smacks of a lack of core belief and that a lot of us will vote for whoever offers us the most moolah in the back pocket.  Mon, 16 Oct 2023 01:32:57 Z /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-weve-got-an-incompetent-cohort-of-politicians/ /on-air/andrew-dickens-monday-afternoons/opinion/andrew-dickens-weve-got-an-incompetent-cohort-of-politicians/ Well, here we are. Finally in the last week of an election campaign between the most incompetent cohort of politicians seen in a long time and wouldn't you know it, an international geo-political crisis just to accentuate that statement. Obviously, Nanaia Mahuta sympathises with Palestinians. She feels they've been colonised the same way Maori were. That doesn't make her an anti-Semite. BUT- you must condemn a surprise raid on civilians that killed thousands. She didn't, while the rest of the world did. So it was left to Chris Hipkins to do the right thing. Isn't that just like Labour. The few competent people trying to tidy up after the incompetent after yet another cock up. So why do I think this is the most incompetent cohort of politicians? They all blow in the breeze and will say anything to get the job. It started when Hipkins got the big job and started the bonfire of the policies, leaving me to ask whether he stood for anything at all. Since then, he's announced more and more spending despite advice to tai hoa and pay down debt It continued when National announced that to afford tax cuts for landlords and the middle class, they had to impose a wealth tax on rich foreigners. What a mixed up ideology. Christopher Luxon announced he could work with Winston Peters just two weeks ago, but now he's taking out full page ads telling voters not to vote for Winston. This is a mess entirely of the leaders' own making. Meanwhile, Winston tells the world in a debate that he doesn't support GST-free fruit and veg even though it's there on his party's website. 15 minutes later it isn't.   As Ben Thomas said: "Imagine being in Winston's team and having to concoct and then delete whole policies in real time as he is thundering on live tv." And now we've got National suggesting we may need a second election and Hipkins agreeing he'd rather have a second election than break his promise about not working with NZ First. So why not cancel the first election and go straight to the second? That's me being facetious. What a mess. How can I vote for any of them? But saying that all politicians are useless - don't vote is the sort of empty thing that Russell Brand would say. So my final word before this election is just vote for the party that matches how your gut feels. This is a vibe election. So just do it and we'll fix it all up on Monday. LISTEN ABOVE Mon, 09 Oct 2023 00:20:04 Z