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Get ready New Zealand, a massive defence budget is going to drop in three months.

Judith Collins told the show on Friday the Government wants to get to two percent of GDP. We're currently at 1.1 percent with our spending.

We spend almost $5 billion a year on defence. So we're talking about double that - almost $10 billion.

Now, Nicola Willis set her spending allowance for new money at $2.4 billion for the next three budgets, excluding savings. 

So at that rate, it'd take more than nine years and ALL the extra money available to get to 2 percent. 

That would also mean nothing extra for health and education or anything else. So that is quite unlikely.

Here's what they should do - come out and say we're getting to two percent within 15 years. They're announcing a 15-year defence plan, so it'd signal plenty of time to scale up.

Then there's the why - and on what?

The why is easy. America is in retreat mode. China is waiting in the wings. We're in the middle, though down the bottom of this battle.

China now has the world’s largest navy - 234 warships. The US has 219.

Donald Trump, and more importantly the American people who voted for him, don't want to play global cop anymore. Trump will only help Ukraine if he gets 50 percent of their mineral wealth in return. He's doing economic deals.

So we're quite vulnerable. The US spends between 3 and 4 percent of GDP on defence. Australia spends 2 percent already.

There'll be plenty of people - the Greens, the academics, and the experts - who'll say we shouldn't spend $10 billion on defence. They want more school lunches and more pay for teachers. 

But what's good's a school lunch if you've got no country? Security is more important.

But the challenge for the Government will be making sure they spend any extra cash on the right stuff. Not just spend the money for sake of hitting an arbitrary target.

We should spend wisely, so we're useful enough to a more powerful player.

If the Government is serious about this, which they certainly sound to be, then perhaps its time they also let nuclear-powered warships into our waters.

If we're worried enough to drop $10 billion on defence, then surely letting an ally dock here wouldn't be such a bad idea?

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