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“Canada will never be part of the United States!”  

That was the defining line of Mark Carney’s first speech as Canada’s new Prime Minister overnight. It was not said in jest or as a joke. It said as a statement of firm defiance, a serious response to Donald Trump’s ‘51st State’ taunts.  

I can’t think of a time in my life where so much in the World was changing so quickly, where so much we took for granted was being tipped on its head. I bet Mark Carney can’t either! Just a few weeks ago, his party was 25 points behind Canada’s Conservatives in the polls. He wasn’t even a politician! Now he’s Canada’s Prime Minister. There it is, I suppose... the power of Donald Trump.  

It’s interesting how differently Mexico and Canada have approached the Trump Presidency. Mexico was kind of used to Trump’s hostility from his first term and its government has taken a softly-softly-gently-gently approach, delaying retaliation and hoping that negotiations will spare them the worst of the economic pressure. They’ve been surprisingly quiet. Canada’s opted for a much more combative response, from its big retaliatory tariffs to the ice hockey fans booing the US National Anthem, and the nationwide coordinated campaign not to buy American-made stuff.   

The irony of Mark Carney’s rapid rise to Canadian Prime Minister is that his party’s support has come at the expense of a political opposition in Canada that was arguably much more closely aligned to the US Republicans and Donald Trump. It’s so ridiculous – Canada’s opposition leader has effectively been reduced to posting social media videos, insisting ‘Donald Trump hates me too!’  

Fundamentally, no country is going to out-muscle the US in an economic fight. Not Canada, not Mexico, not Australia, and certainly not New Zealand. And I reckon what’s lacking at the moment is a more forceful, coordinated international response. Most countries are sucking up to Trump while keeping their heads down and hoping not to attract Trump’s ire. As Canada is bashed by tariffs, it seems absurd their King could possibly go ahead in welcoming Donald Trump to the UK for an official state visit.   

Winston Peters is in Washington DC this week. From New Zealand’s perspective, I reckon there’s probably no better person for the job at this moment. And in those meetings, for now, we will no doubt continue to try and maintain a low profile.  

That makes sense for now. You just have to hope that behind the scenes, like-minded countries are quietly coordinating on a longer-term strategy. Playing a small target game only makes sense until for whatever reason you do catch the President’s attention. It could be something so minor: a dumb tweet, a viral video, or an ill-advised comment from a diplomat. The temptation for leaders around the World is to shut up and hope their countries can slip by, unnoticed. But in the long term that’s no way to defeat a bully.