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Today is the Government’s 104th day in office – better known as the day the real work begins.����

Chris Luxon’s had 100 days to hack, slash and burn his way through a stack of the previous Government’s prized legislative possessions.����

He’s also had 100 days to lay some of the Government’s biggest problems at the feet of the previous administration.������

And with good reason.������

More than 63,000 people work for the Government today; that number was 48,900 in 2017.����

Even with the excuse of Covid-19, there is absolutely no justification for such a mammoth bloating of the public service.������

But from today, the Government must transition from blaming the last administration – to fixing the mess Labour left.����

And this will be no easy feat.����

It has become clear that the fiscal clean up Finance Minister Nicola Willis had anticipated before the election is a lot larger than she expected.������

Over the past few weeks, Willis has been dropping breadcrumbs like a fiscally minded Hansel and Gretel in a bid to gently soften the public to the grim reality that May’s budget isn’t going to be as sweet as was once promised.������

Her first clue was when she told Bloomberg: “I wouldn’t describe myself as optimistic about hitting the budget surplus”.����

In National’s fiscal plan, Willis expected the Government’s books to be back in the black in the 2026/27 financial year.������

“I think it is realistic to say that given the downgraded forecast we’ve seen for the growth trajectory since then, you would expect that to have a revenue impact. And so that surplus position is challenged,” she said.������

Those comments got the message through to a few economists and market watchers, but Willis needed to push the warning out further.������

So, she tee-ed up a patsy question in the House – when a backbencher from your own party asks a softball question, designed to give the minister a chance to boast about their achievements.������

Only, Willis wasn’t boasting last week – she was waving a red flag.��������

“Data revisions and recent out-turns since the half-year update in December indicate that the economy is likely to be in a weaker position this year than was anticipated before Christmas.”����

Then came the kicker.����

“That will flow through to forecasts for tax revenue, so I expect the Crown to be collecting less revenue over the next few years than was previously expected.”����

In other words: the economy’s doing worse than expected, so the Government’s collecting less tax than expected, which means less money to spend.������

Fast forward to Wednesday this week and she was striking a concerning tone once again when she warned members the interest cost alone of servicing the Government’s debt will be $8.8 billion this year.����

It will surpass $10b in 2026.������

But if these hints are the breadcrumbs, the big bad news cake is still to come – and come it will on March 27 when Willis unveils the Budget Policy Statement (BPS).������

The BPS serves as somewhat of an opening salvo to the Budget, which is released in late May.������

It’s where the Finance Minister outlines the priorities of the Budget and, most importantly, the all-important operating allowance – how much extra money the Government has to spend on new initiatives.������

In National’s pre-election fiscal plan, it promised $3.2 billion of new spending this year, $2.85 billion next year and $2.7 billion in 2027.����

Compared to the last Government, these were already tight targets.������

But given the lower-than-expected tax revenue, the billions of dollars' worth of interest payments and the trouble the Government is having with the public sector’s 6.5 per cent haircut – speculation is mounting Willis’ operating allowance dream won’t become a reality.������

And as the Budget draws closer, Willis will be getting worried.��