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Jason Walls: Swarbrick will take Greens to uncharted polling territory – at Labour’s expense

Publish Date
Sat, 3 Feb 2024, 5:00am

Jason Walls: Swarbrick will take Greens to uncharted polling territory – at Labour’s expense

Publish Date
Sat, 3 Feb 2024, 5:00am

There were never any points in guessing who would stand for James Shaw鈥檚 vacated co-leadership position. 听

If bookies were paying odds, Chloe Swarbrick would be paying out about $1.01.听

And for good reason 鈥 not only is she the only realistic option, she鈥檚 by far the best option for the party. 听

She was a little green island during the 2020 red-wave election, winning the previously safe Labour seat of Auckland Central.听

Three years later, she retained the electorate and extended her share of the vote. 听

She鈥檚 one of the best orators in the House and, aside from Shaw and Marama Davidson, she鈥檚 the most well-known Green MP in Parliament.听

In fact, in three of the four 1九一星空无限 polls before last year's election she out-polled both co-leaders in the preferred Prime Minister rankings.听

Now she鈥檚 thrown her hat in the ring for co-leader, expect her star to keep rising. 听

This will of course be good news for the Green Party. 听

Over the next month and a half, Swarbrick will embark on the great green expedition around the country 鈥 lobbying various party branches to support her in her co-leadership quest.听

The increased coverage of her crusade will start to see the party鈥檚 poll numbers creep up. 听 听

But there are only so many votes on the left. 听

As much as Labour and Green insiders might disagree, when one party is riding high 鈥 the other tends to suffer. 听

Ahead of the 2017 election, the Greens were soaring: Polling between 12-15 per cent. Labour, meanwhile, was languishing in the mid-20s.

Then came a circuit breaker by the name of Jacinda Ardern. 听

And as her star rose, the Greens fell 鈥 not helped by the messy resignation of Metiria Turei.听

Now, the Greens have their own circuit breaker and to make matters better for the party, they鈥檙e not starting from a low base. 听

If she wins the co-leadership race, which she will, Swarbrick will take her party into uncharted polling territory. 听

But popularity can only take a party so far. Successful politicians are ruthless, and she鈥檚 already showing early signs she鈥檚 a killer. 听

In her press statement announcing her co-leadership bid, Swarbrick made a rather ambitious goal, when speaking about supercharging the party at an 鈥渆ven greater scale鈥.听

鈥淚t means more Greens MPs in Parliament and ultimately, our nation鈥檚 first Green-led Government.鈥澨

She went further when speaking to press, saying under her watch, the Greens will be the leading movement of the political left. 听

鈥淚t鈥檚 abundantly clear to New Zealanders out there that the legacy parties are just that 鈥 they do not represent the future of this country.鈥澨

A dig at not just National, but would-be bedfellows Labour. 听

Swarbrick knows that prosperity for the Greens will mean pain for Labour and she鈥檚 not side-stepping the issue. 听

In fact, she鈥檚 front-footing it.听

Her declared candidacy was a message of hope for party faithful, but also a shot across the bow at Labour; and a well-timed one at that. 听

For the first time in six years, Labour MPs are battling irrelevance as they navigate the wilderness of opposition. 听

No longer the picture of strength and unity it was under Ardern, left-leaning voters might start to wander 鈥 and wander straight into the Greens camp. 听

Right where Swarbrick wants them.听

But she鈥檒l need an awful lot of them to walk away from Labour to fulfil听her dream of one day, being the first Green Prime Minister. 听

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